College Football Playoff: Why Ohio State Won’t Stay At No. 2

Nov 26, 2016; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer talks with his coaching staff in the pressbox as the team huddles during a timeout in the second overtime at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won the game 30-27 in double overtime. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 26, 2016; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer talks with his coaching staff in the pressbox as the team huddles during a timeout in the second overtime at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won the game 30-27 in double overtime. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports /
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Could Ohio State drop from No. 2? It’s a possibility and the rationale for the College Football Playoff committee to make that move is the same that benefited the Buckeyes in 2014

Before you fly off the handle reading the title, remember that the Buckeyes are not playing for a Big Ten title on Saturday. Instead, they’ll be at home watching all of the other conference championship games. Despite perhaps being the second best team in the country, there’s two big reasons why Ohio State will slip from the 2nd spot in the playoff rankings after this weekend.

First, the playoff committee will penalize the Buckeyes for not bringing home a Big Ten Championship. Washington beat Colorado Friday night. If Clemson wins, that’s two highly ranked conference champs that have wins over another ranked team. Virginia Tech and Colorado are good teams. It’s easy to see Clemson jumping to NO. 2. An ACC title win over the Hokies alone is enough for that. Washington though, though beat the No. 8 team in the country in Colorado.

Don’t think it matters? Buckeye memories only have to go back to 2014. Ohio State was on the outside looking in until the complete and total demolition of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. It was that game alone that vaulted Ohio State ahead of Baylor and TCU for the 4th spot in the first ever College Football Playoff. Just because it isn’t the situation Ohio State is in this year doesn’t mean it can’t happen again.

Second, it isn’t exactly like Ohio State has blown the doors off the competition all season. Yes, there were huge wins over Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland, and Oklahoma. But there were also ugly wins over Indiana and Northwestern. There was a near miss against Michigan State. There was the double overtime survival against Michigan. And of course, there was the loss to Penn State. Yes, Clemson and Washington (and Michigan) have not been perfect either.

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There’s about a 0.001 percent chance that Ohio State drops out of the top four. In fact, I can say with 100 percent certainty that Ohio State makes the playoffs. There’s just a strong chance that the Buckeyes slip to the third or fourth seed based on the presumed winners of the conference title games. Dropping to No. 3 is not the end of the world. The match up would be likely the same against the Clemson Tigers.

Washington blew the door off of the Pac-12 Conference Championship with a 31-point victory over Colorado. The Playoff Committee may move them ahead of Ohio State. That is not the same as saying it is likely to happen, but it is possible. Remember, 2014 was only a couple of seasons ago and Ohio State benefited from the same argument that Washington, and Clemson for that matter, could make.

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The committee may see a Clemson – Washington match up paired with an Alabama – Ohio State match up as the most appealing semifinals they can create. That would in fact be a great weekend of football and is still a possibility.