The Cleveland Cavs made a huge trade during the last hour of Thursday’s trade deadline that saw Detroit Piston’s big man Andre Drummond get shipped.
The Cavs are sitting pretty, shockingly enough, after the trade deadline came and went. The move to make was Tristan Thompson to anywhere but the Cavs balked at all offers and instead went in a vastly different direction. They shed two expiring deals in John Henson and Brandon Knight, alongside the lesser of a second-round pick, to acquire the Piston’s best player Andre Drummond. Drummond is a double-double machine, averaging 14.4 points and 13.9 rebounds during his career in Detroit.
The move comes completely unexpected after months of NBA “insiders” claiming that the Cavs would move not just Thompson but fellow big-man Kevin Love in deals to shed salary and get younger. Both Love and Thompson are having strong seasons, and their value might not be higher. Thompson is a free agent to be, with an expiring deal and Love is under contract for another two and a half seasons.
The move seems to be counter to what many expected the Cavs to do in 2020, with many thinking they’d shed salary and get even younger. With the addition of Drummond however, there is now a more realistic possibility that the Cavs go into the off-season with a vastly different mindset. Perhaps Cavs GM Kolby Altman is tired of all the journalists and ESPN “experts” talking about tanking and getting younger and draft capital and blah-blah-blah. Maybe he saw what Oklahoma City is doing and went “By George, I think they got it!”
There will be many articles to come about the fantasy of this situation, but this piece will look at what’s likely to happen.
Andre Drummond likely to stay
Not only is Andre Drummond likely to stay, but odds are good that he opts to stay long term. Firstly, the NBA will see a reduction in the salary cap in 2020. Add on that most teams won’t have more than their mid-level exception to use in this year’s free agency and it’s very likely that Drummond opts to use his player option to return to the Cavs at about $28.8 million. The Cavs would still be about ten or so million under the cap with Drummond opting in, meaning that there’s still flexibility to make moves. Drummond’s unlikely to see that kind of salary this year, meaning if he wants the most money then staying in Cleveland is the move to make.
On top of that, the Bird Rights that belong to Drummond also come over in the trade, meaning that the Cavs could extend Drummond up to five years, and at a higher rate than he would see in the free-agency pool of 2021.
According to Piston Power’s Aaron Ferguson, not only is the cap possibly going to dip as low as $109 million this off-season but that Drummond is eligible for the big payday that comes with the aforementioned Bird Rights.
"According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, 29 teams can offer increase slots of up to five percent each year. The Pistons can offer up to eight percent additional money per year because of his bird rights. The CBA states that Drummond, a player defined by playing “at least seven but fewer than ten years of service,” will be able to make “the greater of (x) 30% of the Salary Cap in effect in the first season of the contract, renegotiation, or extension, or (y) 105% of the player’s salary for the prior season."
So the odds of Drummond staying in Cleveland are very, very good. All the Cavs need to do is decide what they want to do with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland (trade them or keep them), while hoping their 2020 NBA Draft pick ends up in the top ten so they can keep it, and the Cavs might be looking seriously dangerous next year.
Kevin Love likely to stay
The problem with Kevin Love has been that he’s had no real help. Sure, Thompson has been viable and has put up double-double numbers himself but this is his contract year and he just found out he’ll be playing off the bench thanks to the arrival of the better Drummond. Love will enjoy playing with Drummond, as Drummond is a force to be reckoned with down low.
He’s a powerful player at center, with amazing rebounding skills and the ability to turn the tide of a game defensively. His-shot blocking ability is also an asset that will help the team not be so beatable down low. Love can play off the sheer physical dominance of Drummond and either space the floor for Drummond to work one-on-one or be the one who’s hitting mid-range jumpers all day as Drummond or whoever is running point kicks out to Love to make a play.
Love will also have a reliable rebound partner, so instead of Love hoping Thompson is having an on-day, Love will know that he has the beast of beasts in the middle, racking up rebounds left, right and center. This isn’t to say that the Cavs still won’t trade Love, anything’s possible but the move to bring in Drummond not only helps Love get some guys off of his back offensively but will also show Love that the team is making a commitment. The Cavs have too many holes to fill to dismiss the acquisition of Drummond.
One more major move between now and the start of the 2020-2021 season will be more than enough to get the team back into playoff contention. What that other move likely to be is anyone’s guess, though one would argue that it won’t be bringing back the next guy on the list.
Tristan Thompson likely to walk
In an idyllic world, Tristan Thompson stays, on a reduced deal and comes off the bench with Larry Nance, Dyland Windler, Kevin Porter Jr. and occasionally Matthew Delevadova (on a way reduced deal). This isn’t that kind of world, however, and Thompson is making $18.5 million this year and will want something close to that price next year. Drummond is an upgrade over Thompson and unless Thompson is willing to do work for about a fourth of his 2019-2020 salary, then Thompson will walk.
What will he get in this free-agent period? That’s an interesting question. He wasn’t worth a first-round pick to any team, so he’s clearly not earning his salary in the eyes of the league. He won’t covet a pay raise in 2020 but he could still earn himself eight figures and that’s not going to help the Cavs to try and bring him back at that price. So odds are he’ll end up moving on, probably to a team that doesn’t have much depth or makes huge trades in the off-season that requires some position filling.
The issue against keeping him, however, is that Thompson has never been a good offensive player. The Cavs already have Larry Nance Jr. locked up for the next three and a half years, at a depreciating contract. Offensively Nance gives you the same skill set as Thompson, with the added bonus that he’s better in transition.
Per 36 has Nance averaging almost identical numbers as Thompson for the 2019-2020 season, so what value does a nearly 30-year old Thompson have on the roster that already has the better and more affordable version of him? Not much, that’s for sure.
The Cavs likely to get a high pick
The Cavs have to stay in the top ten of the draft in order to keep their pick, otherwise, it goes to the New Orleans Pelicans. The Cavs and the Golden State Warriors are the two worst teams in the NBA right now, record-wise. Both are going to be near the top of the Draft in terms of selections and it’s highly likely the Warriors win more games than the Cavs because Stephan Curry wants to return to the court this year to play for the Warriors.
The team with the worst record gets an automatic top-five pick in the NBA Draft.
With Drummond, the Cavs have flexibility. If they were to get the top pick, that would mean they could draft James Wiseman and have him come off the bench. If they’re in the top five, that means point guards like Lamelo Ball, and Nico Mannion are available if the team makes a deal to ship either Darius Garland or Collin Sexton off for a veteran all-star. They could also just go with the most obvious choice and draft SG/SF Deni Avdija. He’d either expedite the trade of Sexton, or the team would just add a piece or two in free agency, and run the team back largely unaltered with Garland at the point, Sexton as a shooting guard, Cedi Osman back at the small forward spot, with Love and Drummond at the power forward and center positions respectively.
That would mean that Dylan Windler, Larry Nance Jr., Kevin Porter Jr, and Avdija would all be coming off the bench, with a potential free agent to balance things out. That’s a pretty solid team, but a move or two would need to be made to clear up the back-court confusion.
Regardless of what happens with whom the Cavs draft, the good news is that the Cavs are not likely to lose their pick. The even better news is that the Cavs could make a move to get back into the draft with a possible-Sexton trade and get Dayton PF Obi Toppin, a player man in the blog-o-sphere seem to want on the team.
This could easily be a roster built with winning next year in mind if Koby Altman makes just one or two smart moves.