Five free agents the Cleveland Browns should pursue that analytics was kind to during the 2019 season.
The Cleveland Browns must enter free agency aggressively, considering the holes on the roster Paul DePodesta and Andrew Berry have to patch.
The Browns still have talent, and finding the right free agents could go a long way in helping to make everyone forget about the debacle that was the 2019 season.
Cleveland heads into free agency armed with $50 million in cap space. Now, don’t expect them to spend it all. They never do. Plus, DePodesta founded “Moneyball.” He’s not going to spend just to spend.
That said, he was in his role as chief strategy officer when the Browns made Kevin Zeitler the highest paid guard in the NFL back in 2017, so Cleveland will spend for a player they covet.
NFL free agency is risky, because Browns’ fans have seen their team get burned plenty of times in the past. That said, the right additions, to go along with what’s hopefully a successful draft, will give Cleveland the weapons it needs to content in the AFC North.
That’s especially true if your operating under the premise that Baker Mayfield is a franchise quarterback. just like everyone else, I’m down on Mayfield, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him trend upward with Kevin Stefanski in his life.
With free agency set to commence in March, here’s who five players, who come recommended by the analytically oriented site Pro Football Focus, that the Browns should pursue.
1. Anthony Castonzo, LT, Colts
Anthony Castonzo has been stellar for the Indianapolis Colts, and now at 32, he’ll be a coveted free agent despite his age. He hits the market as PFF’s 17th ranked free agent.
Castonzo enters free agency as Pro Football Focus’ top rated offensive tackle. For the Browns, the veteran could slide onto the left slide of the line next to Joel Bitonio, while giving Joel Bitonio time to make his reads.
PFF noted how Castonzo has been one of the best pass blockers in the NFL–he graded out eighth in the department a season ago. As for blocking, Castonzo isn’t as effective, but he’s still solid.
Castonzo graded out with a mark of 70.3 a season ago, about eight-points higher than Greg Robinson. Even with Robinson in the fold, Nick Chubb was on the brink of winning the NFL’s rushing title.
When it comes to signing free agents, there isn’t much to gauge Andrew Berry’s body of work, however, he was on the staff when the Browns threw a ton of money at right guard Kevin Zeitler back in 2017. When he signed with Cleveland, Zeitler became the highest paid guard in the league.
Tackle needs to be on the Browns’ free agent radar because they can’t expect to find two starters in the upcoming draft.
PFF projected Castonzo to sign a three-year, $39 million pact ($17 million guaranteed). It might be money well spent while the rookie the Browns presumably take at No. 10 cuts his teeth on the right side.
2. Anthony Harris, CB, Vikings
With the Browns looking like they’ll part ways with free agent Damarious Randall, free safety is about to become a major need for new head coach Kevin Stefanski.
A familiar face, Anthony Harris, may be the remedy.
PFF projects it will take a four-year, $56.4 million pact ($31 million guaranteed) to get a deal done, but if Cleveland were able to secure the Vikings, they’ll have the top graded safety from the 2019 season in the mix.
He’s not a flash in the pan, either, ranking as PFF’s third graded safety in 2018.
Most importantly, he’s a playmaker. Harris has nine interceptions and seven pass breakups covering the past two seasons. And you know that tackling problem the Browns had last season? Harris missed just four of his 100 attempts.
Plus, Harris offers versatility with his ability to play in the box, or over the slot.
What Cleveland really needs is Harris to maintain his production because the Browns went from a turnover machine under Gregg Williams in 2018 to a unit that everyone not named Myles Garrett looked expendable.
3. Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers
There’s a great deal of risk when talking about Hunter Hentry, but there’s no denying his numbers when he actually plays.
Since 2016, Henry’s 90.5 receiving grade against single coverage is the eighth-best mark in the NFL.
Here’s the problem, though. He missed the entire 2018 season and was limited to just 12 games in 2019. Despite missing a quarter of the Chargers season, Henry still posted a 75.0 receiving grade, which is still considered good.
Any discussion of tight end has to start with David Njoku, of course, and it will be interesting to see how the Browns view their former first round pick.
It was speculated that he fell out of favor with Freddie Kitchens and John Dorsey, but now that they’re gone, Njoku may get a second chance.
The Browns will soon have to make a decision on The U product, as the higher-ups needs to decide if it will be worth it to pick up his fifth-year option for 2021.
Njoku had his own injury problems to deal with last season, breaking his wrist in Week 2. When he did come back for the final month of the season, he was an afterthought in the offense.
If you had to have one, you’d probably take Henry because he’s more sure handed and is more of a mismatch nightmare. Plus, he’s not allergic to blocking. He’s by no means elite, but good enough that Stefanski could leave him on the field.
4. Jimmie Ward, 49ers, SF
If Anthony Ward proves to be to expensive, Kevin Stefanski should have new defensive coordinator Joe Woods give Jimmie Ward a call.
Woods, who comes to Cleveland after having worked as the 49ers defensive secondary coach, was on staff when Ward had a career year at safety en route to the 49ers’ Super Bowl berth.
Ward became a playmaker for Woods and San Francisco this past season. He ranked eighth among safeties with a grade of 84.2 He spent 71 percent of his snaps at free safety and broke up eight passes while missing just three tackles.
Plus, he’s versatile. Ward’s pretty much played everywhere around the 49ers’ secondary after being a first-round pick back in 2014.
It wasn’t until he moved to free safety for Woods and Robert Saleh, that he became a playmaker, though.
As mentioned, he’d be a lot cheaper to sign, as PFF forecasted a two-year, $8 million ($6 million guaranteed) deal for veteran.
With the Browns failing to secure a future free safety in waiting in the 2019 draft, this is a position of need, especially with Damarious Randall set to walk in free agency. Dorsey picked up Sheldrick Redwine late in the draft last season, but he looks better suited for strong safety.
Considering the Browns needs at tackle and tight end, it’s unlikely they’ll find an impact starter at the position later in the draft.
5. Andrew Whitworth, LT, Rams
Andrew Whitworth seems exactly like the player analytics would be against signing. That said, the Browns wouldn’t be investing a ton of money in the Rams’ free agent.
PFF projected the left tackle will get a one-year deal worth around $11 million. If your the Browns, you’d better jump at that opportunity.
The same train of though applies to Whitworth as it does Castonzo. Whitworth can play left tackle and be better than average, while the Browns groom the 10th overall pick at right tackle.
It will be shocking if the Browns don’t come away from the first round without a tackle. Robinson is a free agent and right tackle Chris Hubbard has been unproductive. Expecting to fix this problem entirely through the draft is craziness.
Throwing a good chunk of money, albeit for one year, takes care of the problem.
The veteran posted his lowest grade (72.8) in 2019, but he was still an excellent pass blocker (84.7), which ranked seventh among his peers. He was also beat for just one sack.