Four expectations for Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mafield, as the former Heisman winner enters a pivotal year in his pro career.
Cleveland Browns signal caller Baker Mayfield enters a pivotal year in 2020, as the pressure is on former No. 1 overall pick to prove he has what it takes to be a franchise quarterback.
Despite a rough sophomore season, the Browns have upgraded the talent around Mayfield, while surrounding him with a head coach many are feeling good about heading into the new season.
Here’s what Browns fans SHOULD expect from their quarterback in 2020.
1. 10 interceptions
The great ones just don’t turn the ball over and that’s going to be the big thing to watch with Mayfield. Tom Brady threw eight last year, Mahomes threw five. Lamar Jackson threw five, while Drew Brees tossed just four in 11 games.
You get the idea. Unfortunately, Baker was trending in the other direction. He threw 21 picks in year two (second most in the NFL) after throwing 14 interceptions in 14 games as a rookie.
The expectation is that the Browns will run a more disciplined, pro-style offense under Kevin Stefanski, which should alleviate Mayfield’s turnovers woes.
Mayfield’s got to reign in the interception total, and under Stefanski, he should be able to do it. The Browns figure to lean heavily on the run, while–I think–we’ll see shorter passing routes, setting up Mayfield for more high-percentage throws.
2. 25 TDS
If Mayfield throws 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, well, you’d sign up for that right now, wouldn’t you? He threw for 22 last year, which now thinking about it, is a miracle.
If that’s not enough scoring, you’re going to be disappointed by Mayfield’s time as quarterback in a Browns’ helmet.
Remember, during the final eight games of that 2018 season, Mayfield was at his best when he was throwing the ball 20-25 times per game.
Last year at this time, everyone was forecasting Mayfield to blow by Brian Sipe‘s single-season touchdown record (30, set in 1980).
While that’s not an insurmountable number for Mayfield to hit, the point is that Baker is not Patrick Mahomes. He’s not going to drop dimes from 40-yards out.
That’s OK. We’ll take three runs inside the 5-yard line instead of an empty backfield with Baker back there as a sitting duck.
3. Complete 65 percent of throws
If Mayfield had completed 65 percent of this throws, he would’ve been just outside the top 10 last season.
Instead, he completed 59.4 percent of his passes, which was the second-worst mark in the league. Only Josh Allen was worse.
Again, this all comes down to Stefanski. It’s assume he’s going to put Baker in better situations to succeed.
If Stefanski is doing his job, and then Mayfield does his, it’s not unreasonable to see Mayfield’s accuracy surge. Remember, coming out of college, he was highly thought of for his accuracy. It’s a big reason he was the perfect blent of “Old school football” and analytics.
Mayfield completed 63.8 percent of his throws as a rookie, so it’s not unreasonable to believe he can’t build off that number.
If he doesn’t hit 65 percent, it will be disappointing, but if he’s under 60 percent again, well, you’ve got to wonder what kind of shape the Browns will be in in the standings.
4. 9 Wins
Count me as a member of the camp who believes wins should matter when it comes to evaluating the career of a quarterback.
There’s a reason quarterbacks make the big money and that’s because the great ones figure out a way to get it done. That’s not to diminish the team effort it takes to win, but we’ve seen it for years: Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Bernie Kosar…these are just a few gentlemen who saw the talent around them rise to the occasion.
Greatness can bring out the greatness in others…and in Cleveland, well if there’s one thing we’re experts in, it’s knowing what a great quarterback doesn’t look like.
Mayfield is the most compelling player storyline heading into this season because the narrative around his career has changed. He’s built himself up as a person who carries a massive chip on his shoulder. We all know his college story. He was passed over at Texas Teach. Had to walk on at Oklahoma. There were doubts about him as the No. 1 pick.
Well, when everyone started jumping on the wagon and Tom Brady was handing him a fist full of rings on TV, Mayfield looked like the next big thing. He was the underdog no more…but then he crashed back to earth as the hype proved to be just that.
Mayfield has weapons on offense. The offensive line was dramatically upgraded. The defense has holes, particularly at linebacker, but no team is perfect. If this team doesn’t win nine, it will be a disappointment.