The Cleveland Browns have a lot of questions heading into the new season but these four are the most imperative for getting the Browns back to the playoffs.
This article isn’t meant to discourage, look down, mock or belittle any of the moves the Cleveland Browns have made in the 2020 offseason. The Browns probably get an “A” for their off-season. Why wouldn’t they? They addressed a majority of their holes in the off-season but there are still some holes that need to be filled. There are still lingering questions about this team.
The new additions should aid in the team’s success. Should, a keyword in any team’s offseason. There are no guarantees here, people. The best you can do is target your biggest issues on your team, develop a scheme, and fill those holes accordingly. It’s never full-proof, and there are always things that can happen that are unforeseen.
Think about Joe Jurevicius having his career ended due to a staph infection in his knee. What about that time the Browns signed the best IOL in the league in LeCharles Bentley only for him to tear his patella tendon. A significant injury but one that requires a singular surgery and about six weeks of being off your feet. Except if you develop a staph infection, get three more surgeries, and find out that your career is over.
These were unforeseen issues. Two local boys come home, in the same off-season, and both have their careers ended due to staph infections in their knees. Yikes. Then there’s the Paul Kruger’s of it all or the time the team signed Dwayne Boye. That worked out well. Oh, wait, no, it didn’t.
The NFL Draft is always a crapshoot as well too. The best quarterback out of the 2012 NF Draft wasn’t first overall pick Andrew Luck, second overall pick Robert Griffen, eight overall pick Ryan Tannehill or 22nd overall pick Brandon Weeden. No, it was the 75th overall pick in Russell Wilson.
“But some of them dealt with injuries,” exactly the point. You can’t predict how one becomes the man from the draft. The odds that Jedrick Wills or any of the other three highly touted tackles become the next Joe Thomas are not in their favor. Sure, there’s going to be a borderline Hall of Famer linemen int his draft, probably, but there’s no way to say who.
This is all madness that people at ESPN, Fox Sports, and other sport media outlets try to tell you is controllable. It’s not. It’s all unpredictable. The greatest quarterback of all time is some 40-something year old, out of shape, schmuck, taken in the 6th round. This is nonsense and it can’t be predicted.
That’s the point. We can only acknowledge what’s wrong, bring in the pieces we think can fix it, and pray that it doesn’t all fall apart by week three. So with that said, these are the four biggest concerns the team is facing in 2020.
How will rookies do?
A lot of experts act like drafting rookies will somehow solve the problems the team had in the years prior. Except, that’s rarely ever the case. Most draft classes will be likely to retain two or three players just a few years later. Expecting a pro bowler? You have a 10% chance of landing one based on stats fro 2000-2007. As for Hall of Fame talent? Well, from 1996 to 2003 there has been 17 Hall of Famers so far. That’s across 2000+ players selected across the time period. That’s a percentage of 0.8%.
The average starter in the NFL will have much higher odds of sticking around, but when you realize how fast the turnover rate for the said player is in the NFL, then you realize just how dramatically improbable it is to rely on rookies to perform at a high level. Realistically three players from the Cleveland Browns 2020 draft will even be on the team in three or four years. Sure there are outliers, but keep in mind the 2013 (zero), 2014 (one) 2015 (zero), 2016 (one), and 2017 (three) drafts have a total of five players remaining. You can’t even say that the players that were taken were busts or poor selections as there are still 19 players from those draft classes on NFL teams, and a 20th in the CFL. 12 of those players are from the 2015 and 2016 classes as well.
You know all that hoopla around a fourth-round pick? Odds are he gets dusted by 2022.
Who will step up on defense?
The team had holes on defense before the team let Pro Bowl linebacker Joe Schobert and starting safety Demetrius Randall go. The team was 22nd in the league in yards given up on defense. The sad thing is they were 7th in the league in pass defense but 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed. Sure, some will say “BLAH BLAH BLAH JOE SCHOBERT…”. The pro bowl, tackling machine was the issue? Not the near-bust Sheldon Richardson? Not the left end of the line which saw players rotating out faster than Hue Hefner rotated Bunnies?
Now, what happens to the pass defense the team had? Relying on oft-injured safeties from other teams, backups at linebacker, and hoping Olivier Vernon stays healthy? Someone will need to step up on defense. Maybe someone will, that isn’t named Denzel Ward or Myles Garrett.
Or and more likely, the defense may be worse than last year because you replaced the best cover linebacker with a career backup on a team desperate for linebackers.
Will the free agents live up to their contracts?
Getting Jack Conklin, Austin Hooper, and others were things that needed to happen. Let’s not assume that free agents always live up to their deals or even play out the length of them. Josh Norman, Jimmy Graham, Albert Haynesworth, Paul Kruger, Andre Rison, Brock Osweiler, Matt Flynn (maybe not entirely his fault), David Boston, Deion Sanders; they all ended up becoming huge busts for the teams that eventually signed them. Ironically, three of them (Norman, Haynesworth, Sanders) were signed by Dan Snyder.
This isn’t any slight against the men signed to the Browns in 2020, only an acknowledgment that sometimes guys don’t pan out as they should. That’s just how it is sometimes.
Is this offense truly ready to succeed?
You have four offensive Pro Bowlers at the skilled positions, possibly five if Baker Mayfield can ascend. Another two offensive Pro Bowlers on the offensive line for a total of six of 11 players offensive starters who have Pro Bowl credentials. The team acquired, in theory, the best free agents for their system, and acquired some great prospects in the draft. Will they all pan out? Will they gel and become the top-10 offense the team should be?
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky thinks so. Does that mean anything to anyone? No, not right now. Though it is a sign that the “experts” think the Browns offense should be great this year. Maybe, just maybe this team is ready to step up. Guess we’ll find out.