Nine moves the Cleveland Indians should make to contend in 2021.
The odd 2020 season ended for the Cleveland Indians in an unusual way, as everything the Tribe did to make the postseason failed the club against the Yankees in the Wild Card Round.
Their ace got slammed, while their No. 2 loaded the bases, only to see their “Wild Thing” get blown up for a grand slam. Their closer, who was perfect in 2020, couldn’t close, putting the cherry on top of a year everyone would like to forget.
So the Tribe heads into 2021 with some nasty stats glaring down the franchise.
The organization has dropped 10-straight postseason games when facing elimination, and the franchise will enter its 73rd year without a World Series title to its name–the longest draught in baseball.
The offseason promises to bring a long winter, as uncertainty hangs over the pandemic-stricken world and baseball front offices pondering what Opening Day 2021 will look like.
Teams like the Indians will tighten their payroll belts, as huge financial losses incurred because of the inability to host fans will be given as the reason why.
So, as the Indians head into the winter, he’s nine moves the Tribe should make this offseason to get back into contention in 2021.
1. Keep Lindor
Call me crazy, but I really, really, really want to see this organization win a World Series. Tribe fans are entering year 73 of this championship drought and the team’s chances of ending it are better with Francisco Lindor on the roster.
Unfortunately, the way things are being portrayed in the media, ownership is going to be hard pressed to pay his arbitration number, would could be upwards of $18 million for 2021. Forget about an extension. It’s not happening.
There’s no doubt the Indians will listen to offers four the four-time All-Star, as they’ve been doing for the better part of a year and a half.
Unfortunately, there’s probably no “Godfather” type deal awaiting them on the market.
The fan base got a taste of what the market looks like on Aug. 31, when the Indians failed to land a major prospect for front-of-the-rotation arm Mike Clevinger. With the economic uncertainty of COVID-19 hanging over clubs, teams are treasuring prospects more than ever.
So, with Lindor’s trade value diminishing by the day, as he has just one year left until free agency, perhaps the Indians should ride it out with its star player.
Cleveland’s starting pitching is expected to be a strength of this team for the foreseeable future behind Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. Plus, more help is in the pipeline.
The Indians will contend for a postseason berth again in 2021, and even though Lindor wasn’t playing up to his usual standards, they’re better with him on the roster. His defense is superb and perhaps he snaps out of it in a regular 162-game season.
If they do move on, Yu Chang would probably get the first crack at replacing Lindor. Chang impressed at Summer Camp, but’s been blocked from getting a big-league job. Tyler Freeman is also an exciting prospect, but I don’t see the Indians rushing him in 2021.
Freeman, a second round pick in 2017, is the Tribe’s No .2 prospect. The Indians will likely start him in the minors, rather than sending him off to a cold April start in Cleveland.
2. Thanks, Carlos
Carlos Santana will leave Cleveland as one of the Tribe’s all-time greats. Not bad for the unheard-of catching prospect who was acquired for Casey Blake from the Dodgers back in 2008.
Santana will depart Cleveland No. 7 in extra-base hits with 503. He memorably passed Lou Boudreau for the spot back on Sept. 6. He’s also fifth in home runs (216) and second in Walks (881).
But with a $17.5 option coming due, the Indians will assuredly decline it, making Santana a free agent. Some fans are talking about re-negotiating with Carlos, for a much cheaper deal, but look for the Tribe to move on.
As a middle-of-the-order hitter, Santana was just brutal this season, batting .199 (.699 OPS). He still has an eye for the baseball, but there just needs to be more action with the bat.
Santana will go down as a fan favorite, who started the 2019 All-Star Game at Progressive Field.
3. Promote Jones to replace Santana
With Jose Ramirez playing MVP caliber baseball, get top prospect Nolan Jones a first baseman’s mit and let’s go.
Jones spent the season at the alternate site and will be a part of the Tribe’s fall instructional league. Knowing the Indians, they probably won’t begin the season with Jones on the roster. Historically, the front office usually waits for the temperature to warm before finally elevating a prospect.
Factor in that Jones has never played first base in the minors, the powers-that-be will want him to get his feet wet with some live action where the pressure isn’t as great.
So, the Tribe will likely replace Carlos Santana with Bobby Bradley, Jake Bauers or even Josh Nayor. I’d like to see Bradley finally get a shot, although I’m sure they’ll kick the tires on Bauers.
Naylor should be considered a last resort, just because he’s needed in the outfield.
Bradley hit 33 bombs for the Clippers in the Columbus Clippers in 2019, although he didn’t make much of an impression during his short stint with the Tribe. It’s time to find out if that power translates at the big-league level.
4. Fix 2B, again
Cesar Hernandez was an excellent free-agent addition for the price of $6.5 million. He posted a 1.9 fWAR and hit .283, while always seeming to come up with a big hit when the Tribe needed it most.
He was calm, cool, collected, and he’ll be missed, because $6.5 million might as well be $20 million for the Dolans in 2021. Teams are bleeding dollars. This look at the Braves shows how much teams are losing. So while bringing back Hernandez at a similar price seems like an obvious decision, the Indians aren’t likely to do it.
Instead, the Indians will make the switch internally, where they’ll pay Hernandez’s replacement less than $1 million.
Yu Chang could potentially be the starter, if he’s not needed at shortstop to replace Francisco Lindor. Another name to keep in mind is Owen Miller, who is one of the player the Indians acquired in the trade for Mike Clevinger.
Miller would’ve been in Triple-A this past season, if there had been a season. He’ll turn 23 in November, so look for him to start the season in Columbus. That said, he could make a case for himself with a strong Spring Training.
5. Decline Hand
Brad Hand, brought into to fortify the Indians bullpen for the postseason a la Andrew Miller, will be remembered for failing to close out the Yankees in Game 2 of the Wild Card round.
Due to make $17.5 million next season if his option is picked up, the Dolans will almost certainly say “Adios” to their closer.
Hand was acquired for top prospect Francisco Mejia before the 2018 deadline and he was good for the Tribe, recording 58 saves in his 2 1/2 season as a closer.
That said, I feel he wasn’t as dominant as he was with the Padres. I think he flashed that reputation in the first half of 2019, earning an All-Star nod, but he got worse as the season progressed, as everyone started to wonder why his fastball was losing velocity.
Interestingly, while Hand was plucked to be the next Miller, he was terrible in the postseason. In three playoff games, Hand posted a 15.43 ERA and a 3.4 WHIP!
Francisco Mejia has failed to get his big-league career on track, so the Indians won the trade by virtue of Hand’s regular-season stats, but his failure in the postseason will be his lasting legacy.
6. Find a new closer
It’s hard to give a guy a job who bombed on the national stage, allowing a grand slam to Gio Urshela that still hasn’t landed, but James Karinchak will be your closer in 2021.
I know. Give the guy a break. The bases were loaded and he was expected to strikeout the next three batters. He’s young and those are unfair expectations.
The truth is, Karinchak was excellent for the Indians this season, recording 53 strikeouts in 27 innings. Nobody in the current pen has stuff like him.
In 2021, we’ll also finally get to see Emmanuel Clase, the centerpiece of the Corey Kluber trade. Clase was suspended for PED use this past season. Before that, it was reported that he could hit 100 miles per hour on the radar gun.
Can he do it after PEDs? We’ll find out in Spring Training.
Ideally, the Indians will also find another power arm. Terry Francona knows bullpens, and he’s got to know that guys like Phil Maton, Dominc Leone and Adam Cimber aren’t the answer.
Meanwhile, Tribe fans had to watch the White Sox pitch a guy who was drafted just six weeks ago in Garrett Crochet.
Why someone such as Sam Hentges, a 6-6 left-hander, who throws a fastball in the mid 90s with sink, wasn’t given an opportunity when it became clear the other guys weren’t cutting it, remains one of the mysteries of 2020.
7. Promote Daniel Johnson
The Indians treat the outfield the way the Browns view linebackackers: Throw guys out there and see what sticks.
How’s that working out for both teams?
With that in mind, it’s time to give Daniel Johnson the opportunity he deserves. He appeared with the Indians briefly in 2020, spending most of the season at the alternative training site. It wouldn’t even be fair to call his stop in the majors a cup of coffee. He was barely at Progressive Field long enough to grind the beans!
With the outfield situation unsettled as ever, it’s time to take an extended look at Johnson. How much longer can the Tribe keep running the turn-style out there?
Tyler Naquin, Jordan Luplow, Bradley Zimmer, Delino DeShields–they’re just not getting the job done. And Jake Bauers? He spent the year at the alternative site. You wouldn’t know, though, because his name didn’t come up once, despite the Indians constant rotation of outfielders.
Johnson has spent split time between center field and right field throughout his minor league career. He doesn’t have much to prove there, either.
Ideally, he’ll have a good camp and make the team out of spring training.
8. Trade for an outfielder…or?
The Tribe must trade for starting outfielder this offseason. It’s easier said than done, but how the Indians didn’t get an impactful everyday outfielder in the Mike Clevinger is THE great mystery of the 2020 season.
Lindor is the obvious trade chip, but he’s not only card in the Tribe’s deck. Cleveland’s done a really nice job of developing starting pitching. One would think they’d be able to get SOMETHING in return for a quality pitching prospect.
That said, I’d like to see more of Josh Naylor. After a slow start, Naylor came on during the postseason, notching hits in his first five at-bats. Obviously, this by no means guarantees success in 2021, so he’ll be part of the conglomeration of guys the Indians try out.
George Valera could also be an option. He’s turning 20, but the Indians thought enough of him to give him looks at Summer Camp, while then stashing him him at the alternative site.
He was part of the much heralded International free-agent class of 2017, and while he projects as a long shot to make the roster in 2021, he’s got a pretty swing and he could be at The Corner sooner than you’d think.
9. Build up the staff
The Indians staff will be weaker without Mike Clevinger in 2021, but the potential is certainly there to stay on track as one of the best rotations in the big leagues.
Shane Bieber, despite an ugly postseason debut, will be the ace. Carlos Carrasco is still under contract for $12 million. Zach Plesac flashed ace potential, while Aaron Civale looks like a dependable middle-of-the-rotation arm.
In 2021, the Indians will look for Triston McKenzie to take the next step, while filling out the fifth spot in the rotation from a conglomeration of players.
There’s plenty of former Padres to look at, including Joey Cantillo, Cal Quantrill and Logan Allen, while former Red Scott Moss is also an intruding candidate.
Adam Plutko may get another shot, but he really struggled against teams when facing a lineup for the second time.