The Indianapolis Colts are coming to town on Oct. 11 and they bring the first real defense the Browns have seen all year.
The Cleveland Browns are going to be in for a fight on Sunday. Why? Their defense. In the question of “who has the better defense?”, the Ravens or the Colts, go with the Indianapolis Colts this year. The Colts may not have the same history of great defenses as the Ravens, but the Colts are the top defense in the NFL right now. That may change by Week 17, but in Week 5 the best defense in the NFL still belongs to the Colts.
The Browns also are now missing their best offensive playmaker in Nick Chubb for at least three weeks, so the Colts job just got so much easier. By no means is that a white flag going up, just an acknowledgment that the Colts have one less thing to worry about defensively.
As good as their defense is, which is good, their offense isn’t passing the standard. Sure, Phillip Rivers is having a fine season but the offense is not great beside him and T.Y. Hilton. So expect a lot of emphasis being placed on the defenses play against the Browns offense.
This game is beyond pivotal for the Browns. Not for the season, mind you, they’re doing just fine so far. No, this is about the franchise. Since 1999, they have never started a season 4-1 and since 1999 they’ve only won four games in a row once, in 2009, when they closed out the year winning four straight under Eric Mangini. The last time the Browns started 4-1 was in 1994 under Bill Belichick. They went 11-5 that year with Vinny Testaverde as the starting quarterback.
There’s pressure on this team to not just beat one of the best teams in the NFL but to start erasing decades of frustration. So, you know, no pressure.
Phillip Rivers can still play
Sure, Phillip Rivers isn’t what he once was. His arm isn’t able to get the ball into those deep corner pockets downfield. That’s ok because he’s still sickeningly accurate. Against the Browns and it’s secondary, he could look like an elite quarterback once again. The Colts are going to need him to as well because that offense is really lacking some serious talent. Their rushing game is devoid of play-making threats and rookie Johnathan Taylor has been bad to start the season, with a sub 4.0 yard per carry.
T.Y. Hilton is a good threat, make no mistake about it, but if you had your pick of top-play wide receivers, would Hilton even be in the top 20, or 30? No, this offense is powered by Rivers’ accuracy and he’ll need to be just that because the Browns intend on testing this top-ranked defense. So they’ll need to score points.
Rivers has completed just shy of 73% of his passes on the year and has thrown four touchdowns, not his best season so far but he’s certainly not been the issue when it comes to moving the chains. The problem that Rivers faces is the need to be perfect to help make up for the rest of the Colts offense. Just one turnover for the day from him could ruin their chances to win. Rivers is under a lot of pressure to perform because that supporting cast in Los Angeles didn’t come with him, which explains why he’s thrown three picks so far.
Granted three picks aren’t a lot through four games, but it’s also not great.
That defense is for real
When looking at stats for any sports, there are always a few “real” stats that matter more and a few “inflated” stats that don’t matter as much. For instance, a “real” stat in the NBA is shooting percentage. Do you know what stat doesn’t matter? Points per game. Score 50 points, but take 50 shots? Not impressive. Score 30 points but only take 13 shots? Impressive.
For football defenses? There are two stats to keep an eye out for; points allowed and total yards allowed. Things like sacks, turnovers, defensive points scored; all that is the sizzle, not the steak. So don’t worry about anything else about the Colts defense. Just worry about these two things. Which they do really good. They have given up the fewest yards in the league and have allowed the least amount of points in the league so far this sesaon.
The Cleveland Browns could be in for a long day.
Yes, the Colts’ biggest win is arguably against the Vikings. The Vikings have been a bad team so far in 2020. They are not, however, a bad offense. They’ve scored 30 points three times so far in 2020. If they had a defense, they might 3-1 or even 4-0.
Sure the Jets and Bears are bad teams, but that’s mostly because they have bad coaches. Don’t let the opposition allow you to sleep on the Colts. They have some solid linebackers who can stuff gaps and the addition of DeForest Buckner has been a blessing for the Colts and a curse for the NFL. Their only real pass rusher to worry about is Justin Houston, and while he may not be his 22-sack self from 2014, he’s good enough to still chase down Baker Mayfield if Jedrick Wills can’t do his job.
This team is a great group, even if it’s devoid of many big names.
Kevin Stefanski won’t be that lucky again
If you haven’t guessed, each of the slide titles are lyrics from different songs. This one belongs to the Undertones, the rest are pretty obvious. So why this set of lyrics for this entry? It seems to be that Kevin Stefanski fancies himself a smart guy. Who’s to say he isn’t? He’s an Ivy League guy (Penn), and most NFL coaches in history can’t say that. Yet, we’re not in an Ivy League history class debating the ethics of the Inquisition, we’re talking X’s and O’s and in that subject, most NFL head coaches are pretty dang smart.
Stefanski nearly blew the entire Dallas Cowboys game on his own. In the fourth quarter, he started to get cute and not practical. He started calling more passing plays, especially on second down and extremely short. He had a possession that lasted a whole 18 seconds, at a time when the Browns needed to drain teh clock.
As many readers of this site know and point out, this offense is designed to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. To borrow a line from Denzel Washington in Remember the Titans, this offense is like novocaine. Just give it time, it always works. You can’t just forget why it works, however. If you inject novocaine into a guy’s shoe, it isn’t going to work. If you pass on second and short when you’re averaging 7.5 yards a carry, your offense isn’t going to work.
Yes, everyone knows the Browns are going to run the ball but not one team has proven they can honestly stop the offense from doing just that. So why bother going to anything else until the defense proves they can stop you? The Browns are averaging 200 rushing yards a game. Just run it. Don’t do gadget plays when you’re up by three and trying to run out the clock. Yes, it worked once, against the Cowboys hole-riddled defense, but same play against these Colts? That Odell Beckham trick play isn’t a touchdown, it’s a 20-yard-loss.
Stefanski has to stop calling plays like he’s trying to outsmart the other coaches and call plays that have a high percentage chance of working. This isn’t Butch Davis 2001 era Browns that didn’t have a lot of talent, this Cleveland Browns team is actually really good. So just move the ball and stop trying to show off how much more clever you are compared to the opposition.