The Ohio State Buckeyes look to remain perfect as they host the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday for a big noon conference showdown.
The Buckeyes have been looking forward to competing again as they were idle last weekend. The pseudo bye week is probably the last thing the Buckeyes were hoping for in the first half of this delayed season. The Buckeyes came out firing on all cylinders to begin this season as they’ve defeated opponents by an average of 23 points.
Idle time can be beneficial in some cases but not as much in the case of the Buckeyes as their positive momentum could be diminished. An idle weekend of competition for a team can be related to a team calling a timeout during a game that has gone out of their favor. This idle weekend could not have come at a worse time for the Buckeyes as an unexpected strong competitor is on the horizon and will be arriving this weekend in full stride.
The Hoosiers are undefeated after four weeks of play for the first time since 2015. This feat has been far more impressive now than that of five years ago considering the Hoosiers’ current schedule. The Hoosiers have been victorious over some of the Big Ten East’s top dogs including Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan.
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Sure, all of those teams have been extremely underwhelming thus far but the Hoosiers’ consistency and sizable margin of victory in their last few games have been impressive. Considering the blunders of the other traditional Big Ten East powers, this game could very well be the Buckeyes’ surefire ticket to the Big Ten Championship. However, the Hoosiers realize that this game could also be their ticket to the big game.
The Hoosiers are looking to continue their first breakout season since recent head coach hire Tom Allen entered the scene in 2016. The team finished on the positive side of a .500 record last season but concluded it in a lackluster manner after dropping three of their last four games including a close loss to Tennessee in the Gator Bowl. The Hoosiers will not earn respect as a true contender in the Big Ten East until they put together a complete season from start to finish.
In other news, Buckeyes’ offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson enters his fourth matchup against his former team whom he coached for five seasons. The Buckeyes have won the last three matchups by no less than 23 points.
A victory over the Buckeyes this weekend will certainly help the Hoosiers’ case as the next team up in place of the currently waning top half of the division. However, the Hoosiers have not been competitive with the Buckeyes through four quarters of football since 2015 in Bloomington. It will certainly be a tall task for the Hoosiers to overcome recent blunders against the Buckeyes especially considering the 41 point differential in Bloomington last year.
The Hoosiers will be facing that same Justin Fields and Ryan Day combo this season but it will flip to Ohio Stadium where the Buckeyes were undefeated and had a win differential of fewer than 24 points just once last season. The Hoosiers have looked the part thus far and made that clear last weekend by easily putting down division foe Michigan State 24-0 in a shutout. Expect the Buckeyes to once again put the Hoosiers in their place.
3. The Buckeyes’ efficiency on offense will wear down the Hoosiers
It’s alright to be a perfectionist but Justin Fields’ version of perfect should be considered unhealthy. Fields has just 11 incompletions through three weeks of football with many of those incompletions, not by his own fault. He has certainly been a man on a mission this season as his list of mistakes is nearly nonexistent.
As typical of the Buckeyes in recent years, Fields has a bevy of receivers at his disposal to aid his success. His best-known comrades include the nation’s best duo consisting of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. The two combined for three touchdowns and over 160 yards last game against Rutgers. Fields had tossed a touchdown to four different receivers last week.
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The Buckeyes have not been shy to introduce new faces to their offense on a weekly basis with Jameson Williams making a fine introduction against Rutgers. Fields’ first touchdown of the game went to Williams as he beat the defense and caught it in the end zone. Tight end Jeremy Ruckert had his breakout game against Penn State where he caught two touchdowns and followed that up last week with another score.
The Hoosiers have a top 20 total defense in the nation this season which is an area the team has been consistent with since they finished within the top 50 last season. This sounds good but it was not evident in the last matchup with the Buckeyes as they gave up over 500 yards of offense and six touchdowns. The Hoosiers currently lead the Big Ten in sacks with Tiawan Mullen leading the team with 2.5 sacks.
One of the Hoosiers’ most favorable statistics is in the category of turnovers as junior cornerback Jaylin Williams is tied for most interceptions in the Big Ten. Fortunately, Fields has been diligent as a passer and has only thrown a grand total of three interceptions in his Buckeye career with none this season. Expect the Buckeyes to continue their dominance with Fields under center.
2. The Buckeyes’ defense will prove their worth when it matters most against the Hoosiers
The Buckeyes’ record may be perfect but as a team, there’s still some work to do. The defense has had some issues this season and it’s that much easier to be critical of this unit in comparison to the near-perfection of the offense. The Buckeyes have had more noticeable defensive issues in the past but it’s worth addressing now since it’s early.
The Hoosiers’ offense is led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Michael Penix Jr. His rise in notoriety has been like a rocket this season as he currently leads the Big Ten in passing yards. His substantial production thus far is likely thanks to nearly doubling Fields in passing attempts. The Hoosiers have heavily relied on Penix and will likely continue to do so. He has also been sacked less and than Fields and has a respectable touchdown to interception ratio of 9-3.
Penix had his inaugural breakout game in week two as he tossed three touchdowns and totaled almost 250 yards through the air against Rutgers. In case that wasn’t enough, he followed that performance up with another three touchdowns and 342 yards against Michigan. Penix has had some help from an encouraging supporting cast.
Junior running back Stevie Scott III has spearheaded the run game with five touchdowns through four weeks. He has not been impressive in terms of efficiency but has served as the primary back accounting for the vast majority of carries. The Hoosiers have the third-worst yards per carry average in the Big Ten with just 2.7.
The Hoosiers’ strength is clearly in the passing game as they are second in the Big Ten in passing yards and tied for second behind the Buckeyes in passing touchdowns. Fortunately, the Buckeyes have given up the second least total passing yards in the conference and have only conceded four passing touchdowns. The Buckeyes will have to remain vigilant in the passing game once again as they face the pass-happy Hoosiers.
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It is difficult to harp on the Buckeyes’ defense statistically speaking because the majority of production against them has come after halftime when the Buckeyes already have the game in hand. Garbage time yardage and touchdowns have come in plenty against the Buckeyes this season as they’ve played games out of reach far before the end of regulation on a weekly basis. This trend is almost certain to continue as the schedule does not get more difficult the rest of the way.
The Buckeyes’ hefty early leads have hurt the defense but they’ve hurt the offense as well. Fields and the Buckeyes’ offense could easily break multiple records in statistical production but their attempts are numbered due to their opponents’ inability to keep up. Maybe the Buckeyes should have less mercy on their opponents and run up the score regardless of the differential. At the end of the day, it’s not the Buckeyes’ fault that other programs cannot compete.
It will be up to the Buckeyes’ defense to contain Penix and the Hoosiers’ passing game which will be a new test. The Buckeyes nearly shut down the Hoosiers’ offense completely last season but that was without Penix. However, they will be returning senior receiver Ty Fryfogle and junior tight end Peyton Hendershot who have been scoring threats this season. Expect the Buckeyes to prove their defense is for real in what could be their last real test this weekend.
1. The Buckeyes will not succumb to the Hoosiers’ turnover reliant game script
The Buckeyes’ name of the game has always been ball control and minimize mistakes. There is already truth to that in this season as their average time of possession ranks 13th in the nation. The Buckeyes’ prolific offense has given them significant room for error but they haven’t had any reason to use it as they’ve conceded just two turnovers thus far.
Careful and precise play will be what is necessary for a sound win against the turnover hungry Hoosiers. The Hoosiers are tied for second in the nation in turnover margin as they’ve been the beneficiary of 12 turnovers from opponents through four weeks. Much of their scoring in important moments have come from turnovers.
However, the Hoosiers aren’t safe from turnovers themselves as they’ve committed four including three interceptions by Penix. Turnovers can be excusable from accidental instances such as the ball coming loose at the last second for a fumble but interceptions are less excusable. Yes, the receiver can run the wrong route or not make a play on the ball but the quarterback is in command of putting the ball where only his receiver can get it.
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The Buckeyes have some turnover margin swag of their own as they are tied for seventh in the nation with five turnovers gained, with just two lost. Keeping possession has been largely due to Fields having a knack for converting on third and fourth downs. The Buckeyes have had some difficulty getting production from their run game this season which has put a slight damper on their parade.
Running backs Master Teague and Trey Sermon have been disappointing as neither of them is averaging above five yards per carry. This is especially concerning with consideration to the fact that the Buckeyes have held significant leads in each of their games. Neither of the backs have turned the ball over which is encouraging, however.
This season would be only the second time since 2013 that a Buckeye running back has not averaged at least six yards per carry. Eventually, the Buckeyes will need to benefit from a significant threat at running back as they will certainly face a respectable passing defense in the near future. The Hoosiers’ rushing defense allows the third least rushing yards per game in the Big Ten.
With opinions floating about regarding who the top quarterback in college football is following the Buckeyes’ idle time, the Hoosiers have provided Justin Fields the perfect opportunity to remind everyone where he stands. Fields is primed to be the Buckeyes’ top gun once more as he looks to outduel Penix in what could be a passing shootout. Expect the Buckeyes to limit their mistakes and make quick work of the Hoosiers.