The Browns are finding themselves down several starters on defense against the Jaguars and a running game that has hit the wall.
The Browns are in a place where they’re not very accustomed, 7-3 and streaking to the playoffs. Granted, that’s easier said than done. While the Browns still have the Jaguars, Giants, and Jets on their schedule, they also still have the Ravens, Steelers, and Titans too.
So in order to get to a place where the Browns are controlling their destiny for playoff glory, they have to keep winning. The good news is that these games are all largely winnable. The Titans aren’t what they were last year defensively, the Ravens have fallen apart with Lamar Jackson taking a huge step back, and the Steelers will have the Browns in the final week of the season and there’s every chance in the world that they’re 14-1 or 15-0 in the final week, and opt to sit their starters.
It is very possible that the Browns can finish 13-3 or a least, 12-4. To get there, though, they have to get the job done against the Jaguars and these are the players who need to step up
Terrence Mitchell (and Kevin Johnson)
The Browns nickel-corner has had to start most of the year due to injuries and now Kevin Johnson will be thrust into the starting lineup as well. Mitchell has often been the target by opposing offenses, and he’s given up many a big play. Mitchell’s break down in coverage and usual inability to deter passes away from him has forced the Browns into some tricky spots, and now that Denzel Ward is out for the foreseeable future, dime-corner Johnson will be thrust into the starting lineup as well.
Made worse is the fact that as of Wednesday, Ronnie Harrison, one of the Browns starting safeties, is currently still listed as questionable for the game. Harrison, Ward, and Andrew Sendejo have largely been good over the last four or five games and this was an opportunity for the three of them to snack on some easy stats. With the only starter from Week 1 left standing being Sendejo, the Browns pass defense may have issues against the Jaguars’ backup quarterback, Mike Glennon, who was announced as the starter for Sunday’s game.
Porter Gustin
Porter Gustin has had some really good moments in his brief three games as a starter, but against Jacksonville, he’ll need to do more. Gustin has shown some solid work with his containment skills, and he does get some depth on the offensive line but Gustin is more of a run stopper than a pass rusher. He can get into the backfield and chase down a quarterback but he just comes up short the few times he’s nearly pulled down the opposing quarterback.
Against Jacksonville, that will need to change, he’ll have to at least lay out Mike Glennon with a hit or two, even if it’s right after he’s just released the football into the air. The Browns can’t rely on Olivier Vernon to do all the work, mostly because Vernon is as inconsistent as rainfall in Arizona. You never know which Vernon is going to show up anymore and with Sionne Takitaki out of the game on Sunday as well, Vernon may be lining up off tackle in a two-point stance, with Adrian Clayborn filling in on the line.
If that does happen, then Gustin will have more opportunity to go one on one with the Jaguars offensive tackle and if he gets those opportunities, he’ll need to make the most of them.
Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb has started slowly in his last two games against the Texans and Eagles, and with rain expected on Sunday in Jacksonville, Chubb will need to start hot and strong to give the Browns their best chance at winning. Against both Philadelphia and Houston, Chubb broke 100 yards. Going further into the stats, against the Texans, he finished with 126 yards, and against the Eagles, he gained 114 yards. Yet in both games, he needed one 50+ run to get him over the 100-yard mark.
Against the Texans, Chubb sat at just 67 yards before his game-ending 59-yard run. With the Eagles, Chubb sat at 60 yards when you take away his 54-yard burst in the fourth quarter. Outside of two, unlikely massive runs, Chubb is averaging just 63.5 yards since his return.
If only taking out two plays from 39 opportunities reduces your average from 120 yards over two games, by nearly half to 63.5 yards a game, then you know this running game has been lucky, not good over the last two weeks.
Prior to those games, his longest was a 29-yard rush against Baltimore.
While Chubb routinely busts out runs of five to 19 yards (a combined26 times this year), he’s only amassed 10 in the last two weeks. Unlike defenses in Baltimore or Washington, the Eagles and Texans are among the leagues worst against the run. Meaning those numbers should have been a lot bigger. Chubb isn’t feasting on bad defenses, that seems to hint that something is off with the running game.
Chubb doesn’t live off of monster gains. He’s routinely over five-yards a rush. Which means he should have 100-plus yards a game simply without needing the monster-gain of 50+ yards. Against Jacksonville, there’s no guarantee that he hits a 50-yard rush to pad his stats. If Chubb can’t pull off a 100-yard game without the need for one massive run then there will be questions.
The biggest example of how the running game has suffered lately isn’t just the YPC, but also in scoring. In five of six games, the Browns put up 30 points. Since the Las Vegas game, though, the Browns haven’t broken 23 in a game. You’d think the return of Chubb would’ve helped the offense get back on track. Especially with the elements not being conducive for passing.
The Jaguars are statistically as bad as the Eagles against the rush. The Browns shouldn’t need a hail-marry-like run for Chubb to break triple digits. This isn’t a team that can afford to not have an efficient running game. The Browns offense has not been producing the points they once did, and that’s in part due to the inefficiencies on the ground as of late.
That needs to change on Sunday.