Four reasons Browns will trounce the Titans in Week 13
The Cleveland Browns get their biggest test of the season against the Tennessee Titans in Week 13.
It’s a game that will be watched closely because fans and pundits, alike, wonder if the Browns have what it takes to beat a team in the upper echelon of the conference.
The Browns have made a living of beating the dregs of the league this season, and that’s just fine–it’s what good teams do.
However, it’s the way the Browns have performed against Super Bowl contenders that’s the cause for concern. Cleveland was out-toughed and outplayed by the Ravens and the Steelers, as it looked like the Browns didn’t belong on the same field as their division rivals.
Even against the Raiders, a team that’s one game over .500, the Browns physicality was questioned in defeat.
Cleveland has one win over a team with an above-.500 record, and that’s the Colts (7-4), a team the Titans just clobbered to take over sole control of the AFC South.
With Pittsburgh running away with the North, a lot is at stake for the Browns, who are right in the thick of things for one of the AFC’s three Wild Card spots.
Depending on where you look, Cleveland is a 6-point underdog heading into Nashville, but here’s four reasons they can pull out a win.
1. Chubb and Hunt can match Henry
Myles Garrett has been taken off the COVID-19 list, so the Browns should be better against the run with the former No. 1 pick back in the lineup.
That said, even when Garrett has been in the game, Cleveland’s shown no ability to stop opposing teams from running the ball. I’m still having nightmares at the though of the Raiders Josh Jacobs making Cleveland’s defense look like a Pop Warner squad.
Fortunately for the Browns, Cleveland can match the best facet of Tennessee’s game, which is rushing the ball behind Derrick Henry.
Chubb has really come on since returning to the lineup in Week 10. Since then, he’s second in rushing yards (414), second in yards after contact (273) and first in missed tackles forced (18), according to Pro Football Focus.
In Hunt, the Browns have something the Titans don’t have for Henry, and that’s a former NFL rushing champ as its No. 2 back. Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski has done a stellar job of balancing the two backs and the results are hard to argue.
Chubb has been unstoppable in the fourth quarter and Chubb’s fresh legs certainly have something to do with it.
2. Browns will score
The Titans are led by a defensive oriented coach in Mike Vrabel, who played linebacker for those Super Bowl championship teams the Patriots fielded in the 2000s.
And while stopping the other team was Vrabel’s calling card as a player, it’s his offense that has Tennessee rolling in 2020.
Defensively, the Titans have given up 30 or more points five times.
Cleveland is 18th in the NFL with 24.1 points per game, but something should be said about the Browns having to play in three crazy weather games in Weeks 8, 10 and 11. Two of those games were at home, which shows up in the stats. The Browns average 25.2 points per contest on the road–two points better than they average at home.
The Titans are sixth in the NFL, averaging 29.5 points per game, but this point ties in with Hunt and Chubb keeping up with Henry. Basically, Cleveland can keep up with the Titans and they don’t need Baker Mayfield getting into a shootout to do so.
3. Mayfield will have time
Baker Mayfield had a couple egregious misses, but I’m one who considers the third-year veteran to have played a good game overall.
He’s still young and ideally, those misses will become few and far between the more reps he takes.
Against the Titans, Mayfield should continue to work through his progressions, while enjoying pressure-free throws on play-action passes.
Jacksonville had only 9.0 team sacks entering last week’s game and only got to Mayfield once on a major whiff by Wyatt Teller. Tennessee only has 14 sacks, as the free-agent signing of Jadeveon Clownley didn’t pay off. Clownley went on the IR without recording a sack for his new team.
Vic Beasley was also a major miss for the Titans, who was cut.
The Browns should continue to get stellar play from their offensive line, and especially rookie Jedrick Wills. He’s establishing himself as a franchise left tackle, allowing a 1.9 percent pressure rate, which ranks fourth among all NFL offensive tackles.
Behind a stout line, in addition to play-action play calling keeping the Titans off-balanced, Mayfield should have another good game.
4. Garrett is back
It’s so obvious, but it’s the truth. Myles Garrett is back, having been taken off the COVID-19/Reserve list after missing the past two weeks.
It’s a huge deal because the Browns defense is a different unit without the 2017 No. 1 overall pick.
Cleveland struggled to get any consistent pressure against Jacksonville last week, and that just can’t be the case against the Titans.
While Ryan Tannehill was trending toward bust in Miami, he’s revived his career with Tennessee, going a remarkable 17-7 as their starter since taking the job away from Marcus Mariota during Week 3 of the 2019 season.
Since taking over, Tannehill has an insane 45-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
With the Browns secondary devastated by injuries, in addition to a linebacking corps that often goes invisible, having Garrett back is invaluable.
Garrett just doesn’t sack quarterbacks, he forces fumbles, which alters games. With Garrett in the lineup, the Browns have what it takes to make a play or two that could be the difference in the contest.