3 reasons the Browns will beat the Steelers in the regular-season finale.
The Browns haven’t played this important of a game against the hated Steelers since January 2003, when Kelly Holcomb threw for over 400 yards and Cleveland still lost a wild card game to Pittsburgh on the road.
Week 17 is not the postseason, but the regular-season finale might as well be a playoff contest to end the franchise’s 17-season playoff drought.
If they win, it’s so simple: They’re in. Lose, and you start rooting for other scenarios to unfold. If the unthinkable happens, the Browns would need to the Jags to beat the Colts in one scenario. That seems unlikely, so if that doesn’t happen, you’d be looking at a scenario where the Texans would need to get by the Titans, while also hoping the Dolphins beat the Bills and Baltimore extinguishes Cincinnati.
ESPN currently gives the Browns a 53 percent chance of making the playoffs.
That said, Vegas feels a little bit better about the Browns odds and that they’ll be playing a paired down Steelers roster, as the Browns were immediate 7.5 points favorites to beat Pittsburgh.
Here’s three reasons the Browns will beat their dreaded turnpike rival and make the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
1. Steelers mailing it in
Pittsburgh battled their own COVID outbreak earlier in the season, which may incline coach Mike Tomlin to give his veterans a break.
There’s no difference between the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds, as only one team–the top team in the conference–gets a first-round bye. That said, seeding does matter in the second round, where the possibility exists that the second seed could host the three seed.
Pittsburgh, who was without a true Bye week this season, may just have to take the week-by-week approach and play Mason Rudolph, instead of Ben Roethlisberger, who is 24-2-1 lifetime against the Browns.
Other key Steelers who could rest include offensive linemen David DeCastro and Maurice Pouncey, as well as defensive stars Minkah Fitzpatrick, Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt.
If this ends up being the case, the Browns have no excuse to but to bully Pittsburgh the entire game.
2. They’re back
The four Browns wide receivers who were ruled out because of COVID contract tracing can return for Sunday’s regular-season finale.
Ja’Marcus Bradley played admirably in the second half last week, having Jarvis Landry on the field is something the Browns couldn’t replicate in their disaster of a loss to the Jets.
Additionally, don’t discount what Donovan Peoples-Jones brings to the team in terms of speed and giving the Browns a vertical threat. He may not be Odell Beckham, but with DPJ, the Browns can at least show the treat of going down field.
In addition to the receivers coming back, the Browns should also be able to plug Jedrick Wills back in at left tackle. Right guard Wyatt Teller should also play after missing two weeks with an ankle injury.
The defensive backfield should also be bolstered by Ronnie Harrison, who was taken off IR just days before the Browns played the Jets. Look for the safety to play Sunday.
3. A motivated Baker
Baker’s just better with a chip on his shoulder and judging by his postgame comments from New York, he’s taking on all the responsibility of the defeat.
Mayfield committed three turnovers in the game, which usually spells doomsday for any team.
Now that Mayfield can play the “Against all odds” cards that helped him become the No. 1 pick in the draft, he should be lights out against a Steelers team that will likely sit several key starters.
Mayfield actually played decently against the Jets, all things considered. He made the most of a bad situation and had the Browns sniffing victory all the way to the end. Kevin Stefanski is the man responsible for calling 53 passes, so that can’t be put on Baker’s shoulders.
With the Browns at full strength and Pittsburgh playing their JV squad, Baker will deliver, as he usually does against lesser opponents when his fellow starters are active and cleared to play.
4. Run Mason
If Big Ben takes the day off, Mason Rudolph could be in for a long day. Myles Garrett, who was suspended for six games and fined around $1 million after swinging a helmet at the backup, will be plenty motivated.
Garrett was still taking breathing treatments last week as a result of the after effects of the coronavirus, but he was able to add to his sack total (12).
Olivier Vernon is also playing extremely well and now has eight sacks in his last eight games. The former Giant led the Browns with eight team pressures against New York.
Sheldon Richardson, a special teams kick blocking maven, has also demonstrated some consistent ability to generate pressure from the inside.
With the Steelers expected to rest some of their key players, the Browns front-four should be counted on to make a huge impact defensively.
The Garrett-Rudolph feud will be the center of attention, but Cleveland should make it a long day for the Steelers backup.