5 reasons the Browns can beat the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round.
It’s mid January, and the Browns are still playing. Cleveland did the impossible by shellacking the Steelers in Heinz Field, when all the odds were stacked against them.
It’s the kind of dream no one wants to wake up from.
And the Browns’ reward for knocking off Pittsburgh? The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.
In full transparency, it wasn’t easy to sit down and write this column. Kansas City is a juggernaut. Patrick Mahomes is something out of a video game. A few flicks of his wrist and you’re down 21. Or, if you get a lead, you sit dazed and confused when time expires after Mahomes made a second-half comeback look all-too easy. As the Titans, Chiefs and 49ers how that goes.
However, I, like you, won’t be getting off the bus now. I’ve been riding it since my first Browns memory, when a school bus of classmates sang “Bernie, Bernie,” to the tune of “Louie ,Louie” on the ride home days before Cleveland played in the 1988 AFC Championship game-better known as “The Fumble.”
The Browns are an 11-5 team that just convincing won a playoff game. They’ve got a shot, and if you’ve watched all the losers this franchise has given us over the last two decades, that’s all you can ask for.
Here’s five reasons the Browns will beat the Chiefs, thus advancing to AFC title game.
1. Baker at his best
Baker Mayfield may not be throwing for 500 yards and four touchdowns a game, but he hasn’t needed to. That said, he’s been more than a game manager and is playing the best football of his professional career.
Mayfield’s threw just one pick in his last 10 games (which includes the Steelers playoff win), while tallying 14 touchdowns in the same span.
Since Week 9, Mayfield’s surprisingly graded out slightly higher than adversary on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes, with a grade of 90.5 compared to 88.5.
Pro Football Focus has given grades of 90 or higher on four occasions to only three quarterbacks this season, and two of them will play in this game.
You’d expect Patrick Mahomes to be on the list, but you probably never thought you’d see Mayfield keeping his adversary’s company.
Additionally, Mayfield is having success out of the shotgun, which gives the Browns more options. There was a time this season where pundits questioned if Mayfield’s success was a product of Kevin Stefanski’s system, which leans heavily on play action fakes.
Mayfield’s proving otherwise out the gun. He owns the fifth best on-target percentage (79.4), in addition to the league’s lowest interception percentage (0.5).
The former No. 1 pick has never been better while wearing an orange helmet, and it’ll be imperative for Mayfield to continue his upward trend if the Browns are going to have a chance.
2. Chiefs are weakened
Yes, the Chiefs are weaker from when they made their Super Bowl run last season. No, I haven’t been sleeping under a rock all year. Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL and having him under center covered a lot of warts that tried to pop up throughout the 2020 campaign.
But the truth is Kansas City doesn’t have two of its starters on the offensive line in right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, as well as left guard Kelechi Osemele.
Andy Reid was also without his sensational rooking running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (who practiced Wednesday, by the way). Helaire’s been out since Week 15 with a high-ankle sprain, and it looks like he’s going to give it a go, although it will be worth watching how he holds up.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are still far from perfect on defense, and their inability to have consistent success against the run plays into the Browns favor.
Kansas City has names on their defense in nose tackle Chris Jones, safety Tyrann Mathhieu and edge rusher Frank Clark, but they’re not a consistent stopper, ranking 16th against the pass and 31st against the run.
3. Setting up big for the Backs
The Chiefs are 31st in the NFL in stopping the run, which means Browns’ backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt could help carry Cleveland to victory.
If they can be consistently effect, they’ll help Mayfield sustain long drives that result in touchdowns. If there’s anything that can stop Patrick Mahomes, it’s keeping him on the sideline, while you’re out there scoring.
If you’re “three and out” on three of your first four drives, your probably in trouble as we know Mahomes will make you pay .
The good news: Kansas City doesn’t force many punts and instead relies on game-changing plays on defense. Their defense is kind of like the Browns in that way, so while the Chiefs defense isn’t all that great, no one will will compare Cleveland to the ’85 Bears. Cleveland, though, relies on their big-time players to make players (Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward) to come up big in moments.
As for the backs, Kareem Hunt ran like a man possessed against the Steelers, as images of him carrying that Steelers defender four yards over the goal line, and then celebrating with push-ups is still engrained in the consciousness of the fan base.
Meanwhile, Chubb was an effective rusher who also became the back to take on the receiving work, which something Hunt usually does.
To bottom line it, though, the best way to control the pace of a game is to run, and the Browns have to of the best backs in the business.
4. They’re back
When you’re playing a golden arm, such as Patrick. Mahomes, you need all hands on deck, and the Browns will be getting some much needed aid with the return of Denzel Ward and Kevin. Johnson off the COVID/reserve list.
This isn’t too say Denzel is going to put Tyreke Hill on Ward Island, but Ward is a great a player more than capable of making a play.
Shutting down Mahomes is nearly impossible, so giving him some hiccups that the offense can capitalize on could be the difference in the game if Cleveland is able to do their part on the scoreboard.
On offense, the Browns will welcome back Joel Bitonio to the left guard spot (was on COVID/reserve list), while All-Pro Jack Conklin is expected to start after suffering a hamstring injury in the first half against the Steelers.
To top it off, Kevin Stefanski will return to the sideline after spending Wild Card weekend watching in his basement.
The Browns got some heroic performances from players such as Robert Jackson and Michael Dunn against Pittsburgh, but if you’re going to beat the champs, you’re going to need your best.
5. Browns have their own firepower
When have the Browns had this type of firepower. I’ve already talked up Baker, but what about elsewhere?
Jarvis Landry took turned a slant into a 40-yard touchdown, right into the teeth of the Steelers defense last week.
The Ying, Nick Chubb, is the most elusive running back in the game, while his Yang, Kareem Hunt, will run through like his hair is on fire.
Heck, even Donovan Peoples-Jones can make you pay if you don’t pay attention to him. No, he’s not Odell Beckham Jr., but he brings the ability to stretch the field. Ask the Titans and Bengals about his ability to get behind a defense.
And then there’s steady Rashard Higgins. He catches the ball and is safety valve who seems to be there when Mayfield needs his post.
I haven’t even gotten to the tight ends, yet. Austin Hooper isn’t the vertical threat that Kelce is, but Mayfield will count on him. Hooper has 31 targets in his last three games. Elsewhere, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant may not get the targets Hooper receivers, but they’re capable of coming out of nowhere to rip off a chunk play.
You’ve got to score if you’re going to go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs, and the Browns have the players who’ve shown the ability to do it.