Baker Mayfield did something no Browns quarterback has done since Vinny Testaverde guided Cleveland to a playoff victory in 1994.
After a dismal 2019 sophomore season under Freddie Kitchens, Mayfield’s rebounded under the guidance of Kevin Stefanski. When your coach and quarterback are going strong, chances are, your team is in great shape. Currently, things haven’t been better for the Browns. For a generation that has only endured losing, it’s a strange feeling.
Mayfield’s contract is the next domino to fall for the Browns, but it remains unclear if Cleveland will try and extend him before the start of the season. Because Mayfield was a first-round pick, Cleveland can pick up the fifth-year option on the quarterback.
Don’t look for Mayfield to get Patrick Mahomes money, but something to the tune of Dak Prescott’s deal could be the framework for Baker’s new pact (This is just me speculating, so we’ll see.)
Prescott signed a four-year, $160 million extension. He got an NFL record $66 million signing bonus, meaning he’ll net $75 million in 2021.
With Baker on the cusp of big-time, starting quarterback money, here’s for expectations to place on the the field general entering his fourth year.
1. Touchdown record
This prediction heads into its third year, but it’s going to happen this time. Baker Mayfield will break Brian Sipe’s single-season touchdown record when he threw 30 scores during his magical MVP run in 1980.
Mayfield hasn’t been far behind Sipe, throwing 28 touchdowns in 2018 and 26 a season ago.
So, why will he finally be able to get over the hump? Look no further than head coach Kevin Stefanski.
It didn’t start out smoothly–perhaps being unable to hold a traditional offseason had something to do with it–but Mayfield had just 10 touchdown passes and six interceptions through the first six games of the season.
After some time to grasp Stefanski system (and with OBJ off the field unable to disrupt chemistry), Mayfield threw 20 touchdown passes and three picks in the final 12 contests of the season, which includes playoffs.
If Mayfield didn’t perform like he did in those final 12 weeks, the Browns would have a lot of questions to answer this offseason. Fortunately, finally, the Browns look to have a long-term answer at quarterback.
2. Baker Mayfield chemistry with OBJ
OK, you noted the cheap shot I took at OBJ in the previous blurb. I’m not rooting against OBJ, though. He’s a talent that makes the Browns better and I’m actually looking for Mayfield to show that the Browns can be dangerously better with No. 13 on the field.
The trade rumors will never stop, and that’s fine. Some guys live in trade rumors (see Kevin Love). The same is true of Beckham.
So, why will lightning strike Baker and OBJ?
Beckham turns 29 in November. The No. 1 google search for “OBJ” asks “Is OBJ still in the NFL.” The point is that Beckham has become a player known for what he’s done, not for what he’s doing.
It’s been a long, long time since he made the one-handed grab on national television with the Giants. He’s still capable of taking of over a game (see last year’s Cowboys’ contest), but that’s one game in two seasons. He’s coming off major knee surgery. Beckham needs a good season. He needs to stay healthy. He needs good stats if he wants to see another contract after 2022.
Meanwhile, Baker’s got the type of capital you’d think he’d have after earning a playoff win, knowing full well, he did it without OBJ.
3. AFC title game appearance
The Steelers playoff victory was a night Browns fans will never forget, but now, it’s time to look at the bigger picture, getting to the Super Bowl.
And while I’m hedging on placing that burden on Baker Mayfield in 2021, the fourth-year signal caller should, at the least, get his team into the AFC championship game.
They’d have been there last season if the refs would’ve flagged a helmet-to-helmet hit on Rashard Higgins, but ugh, I digress.
The Browns have done everything possible to build off the offense and are using this offseason to build up the defense. The window to win really comes within the next two years with Mayfield still playing under his rookie deal. Having him on an affordable pact has helped the Browns sign free agents such as Jack Conklin and John Johnson.
Additionally, big money is coming due, as Nick Chubb and Denzel Ward will be looking for new contracts.
Coming off a season in which the Browns were a game away from playing for the AFC title, and with the team improved, it’s perfectly reasonable to expect Mayfield to get his team this far.
4. 3,600 yards, under 10 picks
Mayfield’s most prolific passing season came under Freddie Kitchens, when he threw for 3,827 yards. No surprise here, as Kitchens seemed to forget the Browns employed running backs some times.
Under Stefanski, he threw for 3,563 yards, while he threw for 3,725 in his rookie campaign.
Mayfield should be somewhere in-between those figures in his second-year under Stefanski. Additionally his interceptions should be under 10. Remember, he threw three interceptions in the final 12 weeks of the season (including two playoff games).
I’ve already harped on it, but Mayfield and Stefanski showed a comfort with each other after what looked like an early feeling out period.
En route to guiding Cleveland to the playoffs, Mayfield was making plays and protecting the ball. That’s what he did Oklahoma, as the former Heisman winner never threw more than nine interceptions in a season. Those came in his freshman year at Texas Tech, by the way.
Mayfield’s 22 picks under Kitchens in 2019 were obviously a huge red flag, but under Stefanski, those issues seems to have been resolved.