The Indians have had a rough go of it but don’t give up on them now.
The Indians are not a team so easily written off. They have been able to do amazing things during the Terry Francona-Era, and if you think being just one game over .500 is a sign that things are bad, hold your horses.
The Tribe is anything but. In fact, the Tribe is in a good position with July in the full thing. They are quite capable of not just mounting a comeback to get into the AL Central race but winning it all. A bold claim, admittedly, but not one without merit.
What makes this team someone you shouldn’t count out in the long run? Well, let’s hit those three reasons.
Returning talent
The Indians are waiting on the returns of Jordan Luplow, Aaron Civale, Shane Beiber, and Eddie Rosario still from the injured list this year. They also just got back Franmil Reyes, Roberto Perez, and Zach Plesac. To just assume this is a “bad team” would be a dishonest evaluation of what’s going on.
The Tribe has never dealt with this many significant injuries before during Terry Francona’s tenure, and that’s mostly due to the injured major leaguers and the Triple-A talent that just arent’ quite ready yet.
With the acquisition of Wilson Ramos and Brad Peacock, the Tribe is in a unique situation to better themselves without giving anything up in return. Both men are expected to contribute in a major way with the Major League club, and if they can swing a trade for another outfielder (like the aforementioned Pirates trade idea we pitched), then this season is far from lost.
Second half success
The Indians are a second-half ball club. Always has been under Terry Francona. In his time with the Indians, pre-2021 season, he’s gone 673-521. That’s a winning percentage of 56%. If the first and second half of the season is designated by the All-Star break, then Francona’s first-half winning percentage is 54% and his second-half winning percentage is 59.2%.
Despite playing nearly a hundred games fewer over the course of his tenure with the Tribe in the second half, he nearly has as many career wins (360 to 313). Not only that but he’s never had a losing record in the second half of his Indians tenure, he’s never won less than 53% of his games in the second half in any given season, and only twice (2016 and 2020) have the Indians had a better winning percentage in the first half as opposed to the second half.
In 2016, it was 59% in the first half and 57% in the second, while 2020 had a 60% win rate in the first half and 60% in the second. For context’s sake, every season except 2020 saw the “first-half” have more games in it than the second, mostly due to how the All-Star Game is placed. In 2020, we just split the season schedule at 30, with games 1-30 being the first half and 31-60 being the second half. This was done due to 2020 not having an All-Star break.
The Tribe is 43-42 as of this writing. If the Indians continue with their pace of a winning percentage of 59%, then the Tribe should finish somewhere around 88-90 games depending on how the last few games of the pre-All Star break goes.
The Tribe could easily slide in with that as a final record, and that’s not taking into factor any massive steaks the Tribe may go on.
Not afraid to make trades
The Indians have not been afraid to make trades to improve their team at the deadline. In 2019 they traded Trevor “Creep” Bauer to the Reds for Franmil Reyes, Yasiel Puig, Logan Allen, Scott Moss, and Victory Nova. With Bauer likely to not pitch the rest of the year (if ever again), the Tribe won that trade.
The Tribe won the Mike Clevinger deal, getting back Josh Naylor, Austin Hedges, Cal Quantrill, Owen Miller, Gabrial Arias, and Joey Cantillo. Clevinger is out for the entire season due to injury and may never regain his old form.
In 2018, the Tribe in three separate trades in July acquired Adam Cimber, Brad Hand, Oscar Mercado, and Leonys Martin.
In 2017, after the deadline, the Tribe landed Jay Bruce. In 2016, Cleveland got Andrew Miller at the deadline, then Brandon Guyer and Coco Crisp as trade waivers. In 2014 the Tribe got Jason Kubel and Marc Rzepczynski.
These were just the deadline trades that improved the team immediately since Terry Francona took over. There were a few others, like trading Vinnie Pestano for Mike Clevinger in 2014, but that was a trade for a prospect and we’re not counting those.
The Tribe will make a move or three when the deadline comes. It won’t be for Mike Trout, but whoever it’ll be for will more than likely help the team succeed.