The Cleveland Indians enter the trade deadline stuck well behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central standings. Heck, even the club’s Wild Card chances are dim, as Cleveland is 5.0 games back entering July 29.
The diehard in me always hoped this version of the Indians would contend–even with a bottom two payroll–Realistically, though, 2021 has always been a “find out about” year.
Whether we’re talking about position players who are looking to hang onto their MLB jobs, or prospects looking to prove they’re ready to make the jump, or younger pitchers who need to prove they can hold onto a spot in the rotation, Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff have to find out what they’ll have for 2022 and beyond.
Fortunately, the future isn’t all that glum. Cleveland has a young roster, and at one point, the team was 9.0 games over .500. They hit some bumps in the road in July, but Terry Francona’s teams typically well in August and September.
The point is the Tribe is expected to spend a little bit more in 2022 and with younger players on the rise, the Tribe could surprise fans next season, especially if the rotation stays in tact.
Here’s three predictions for Friday’s MLB trade deadline–and no, I don’t see J-Ram going anywhere, although, shameless plug, if he does, look at these five potential destinations.
1. Cleveland Indians trade a catcher
The fiscally conservative Tribe will probably deal a catcher, probably Roberto Perez. Twenty percent of the team’s payroll is tied up in backstops who are subpart defensively, but can’t hit a lick. The club has nearly $9 million tied up in Perez and Hedges.
If both are on the roster next season, the duo will command a total of $11 million, with Hedges expected to get somewhere between $3 and $4.5 million via arbitration.
Perez hit 24 homers in 2019, but injuries derailed him in 2020 and 2021. He’s batting . 149 in 118 plate appearances.
The Tribe picked up Wilson Ramos, who’s at Triple-A. He could prove a capable backup to Hedges for 2022 and the organization waits on catching prospect Bo Naylor’s MLB debut date to ripen.
2. Cleveland Indians trade Cesar Hernandez
Update: Cesar Hernandez was traded to the White Sox.
I would think there’s a contender out there (the Giants) that would love to get Cesar Hernandez, a second baseman who’s hit the most home runs of his career in 2022.
Hernandez was excellent for the Tribe in 2020, and while his average has sunk to .231 after batting .283 a season ago (lifetime, he’s a .272 hitter). Hernandez is clearly trying to hit for more power (perhaps a cold free-agent market inspired him). The most home runs he ever hit in a season prior to the current campaign came in 2018, when hit 15 with the Phillies.
Hernandez is also extremely affordable. He’s earning $5 million next season and has a team option next season that would pay him $6 million.
With the glut of middle infielders who are getting closer to reaching their MLB born-on-date, such as Tyler Freeman, in addition to probably MLB-ready shortstop/second baseman Andres Gimenez in the mix, there’s just no need to keep Hernandez around.
Freeman, who was drafted as a shortstop, has long been projected for a big-league future at second. Gimenez started the season at short before being demoted, giving Rosario the chance to play everyday at his natural position.
But perhaps even Rosario could find himself traded, as at least one team inquired about him, according to The Athletic’s Zack Meisel (subscription). Unfortunately, with better options out there like Trevor Story and Trea Turner, most teams aren’t paying attention to Rosario, so we’ll see.
I think it’s more likely he stays, and the Indians work him into the outfield for 2022.
3. Trade for long-term, MLB ready player
When the Indians become the Guardians, there’s no better PR the club can give the franchise, other than winning.
And I think we’re seeing Terry Francona prepare for 2022 by the way he’s handing the pitching staff. Lately, I’ve found myself yelling at my TV for leaving younger players such as Cal Quantrill, J.C. Mejia and Triston McKenzie in games an inning too long.
When it’s happening, and these pitchers get in jams, it’s frustrating. That said, these arms need to get used to working later in games if they’re going to be long-term viable solutions in the rotation.
Tito enjoyed a big win the other day, when Quantrill pitches 6.0 innings, getting out of a jam in his final frame of work. He left the game with a 3-2 lead before the bullpen blew the game later on.
With the eyes on the future, I’m looking for the Indians to do something big–such as trading for Arizona’s Ketel Marte or the Twins’ Max Kepler.
Marte would be the dream, but keep an eye on Kepler, as well. The Twins are tearing things down and the outfielder comes with potentially there years of club control. He’ll earn $6.75 million next season, $8.5 million in 2023 and a team option that would pay him $10 million in 2024.
Kepler can play center or left field, which would solve a problem for the Indians. A healthy Josh Naylor can man right field, but Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado haven’t hit will enough to seize center.
If the Tribe doesn’t make this deal at the deadline, the team could always re-visit these scenarios during the offseason when it’s easier to get a deal like this done.