What would the Cleveland Cavaliers do if the League expands?
The NBA is considering expanding from 30 teams to 32 teams, with a new franchise popping up in Las Vegas, and Seattle getting another franchise, more than likely named the SuperSonics. The league last expanded in 2004, when the NBA brought a team back to Charlotte.
Charlotte had the Hornets originally, debuting in 1988 alongside the Miami Heat, the Hornets became quite popular in the 90s behind Larry Johnson, Alonzo Mourning, and Muggsy Bogues but in the late 90s and early 2000’s the club fell on hard times and were moved to New Orleans.
In 2004, the league decided to rectify that problem and gave the city of Charlotte a new team, the Bobcats. Michael Jordan would later purchase the club in 2009 and would rename them the Hornets after the New Orleans franchise changed its name to the Pelicans.
That was the last time the league expanded, and in doing so, the Bobcats/Hornets ended up getting an expansion draft to fill out their roster. One of the names they took was Jason Kapono, a former member of the Cavaliers. Kapono was a great three-point shooter but competed in an era where that style of play wasn’t as respected and needed as it is today.
The Cavs couldn’t protect Kapono in 2004, as they only had eight players they could protect. Everyone else was eligible to be selected. Though, once a team lost a player they could no longer lose another.
If the league expands by two teams in the same year, then the league will likely follow the same trend it did in 1995 when the Vancouver Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors were both added to the league at the same time. In that draft, no team lost more than one player, but every team did lose someone.
So what would the Cavaliers do in the event of an expansion?
The players who would be locks
For the sake of this exercise, we’re going to assume Collin Sexton is re-signing, that no players have been drafted yet in the amateur draft and that no free agents have agreed to any contracts. This way we don’t have to factor in the rookies the Cavs can draft this year or the potential signing of Ricky Rubio.
So, let’s start with the four players who are obviously going to be protected and why.
Firstly, Darius Garland. The Cavaliers would not let Garland go unprotected, even if the team had a fallout with Garland, the Cavs get nothing in exchange for a player being selected. So the team wouldn’t just let Garland go in the expansion draft. Since Garland quite likes it in Cleveland and he and the team are finding success, it would be wild to see him want to leave or end up in Las Vegas or Seattle.
Secondly, Evan Mobley. He has the potential to be a more dynamic scorer than anyone on the team, so if he can develop that three-point shot, he’s going to be very hard to stop. His offense is good but his defense is what makes him a can’t miss player.
Thirdly, Jarrett Allen. Allen may be as good as Mobley defensively, but Mobley is a more dynamic scorer and isn’t that far behind Allen on defense. So Allen is the third most obvious pick.
Lastly, Collin Sexton. While Sexton isn’t untouchable like the other three are, Sexton is too valuable to lose in an expansion draft. Sure, maybe he isn’t the best fit for the Cavaliers long term and is only getting the play he is because the team saw how ineffective Caris LeVert was at times in 2021-2022. That’s all true, but he’s also able to fetch you a first-round pick at least in the event of a trade.
You don’t just ignore that.
Guaranteed: Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Collin Sexton
The four we’d end up keeping after some debate
Right now the Cavs have some interesting pieces like Lamar Stevens, Cedi Osman, Kevin Love, Dean Wade, and others, but of the remaining members of the team, who are the four that would end up getting protected? Well, I think like with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Collin Sexton, everyone who gets protected should be equal parts talented and equal parts assets. Their value should not be in dispute.
That’s why we’re starting with Lauri Markkanen. He’s a 7’0 who can play three positions on the court and has an incredible ability to stretch the court. He struggled in the first part of the year, but you could argue there was no better shooter after he returned from his injury later in the year. He’s young, has a relatively team-friendly deal, and would be a valuable asset on the court or off.
Then we go to Cedi Osman, granted not the best of these four players but he’s got a contract that’s under team control for the next two years, and his price drops each year. He’s a jack of all trades small forward, who is best suited with the ball in his hands, facilitating the offense. He plays like a more athletic Hedo Turkoglu and should be utilized as such.
Next up is Caris LeVert, who while I’m not overly a fan of in our system, he’s too good to lose for free. LeVert is someone that is best suited in a trade package to bolster the Cavaliers in 2022-2023 but if the team can’t bring back Sexton or Ricky Rubio, it’s likely the team keeps him and lets him walk in free agency. Yet, if the draft was today, you would not want to lose him for nothing.
Lastly is Kevin Love, who while is the last one selected to protect, isn’t done so lightly. As a talent, he’s still very good and provides a lot to the team. The reason why you wouldn’t protect is that the expansion teams aren’t really going to be too interested in selecting a 34-year-old forward, with an injury history, and a hefty contract. He’s likely to not want to play in that situation and would pull a BJ Armstrong and demand a trade. Yet, I think Love is too good to leave unprotected, and the talent you’re leaving unprotected aren’t exactly guys you can’t replace.
The other four: Kevin Love, Caris LeVert, Lauri Markkanen, Cedi Osman
The remaining players
So with that said, who is left? Well, let’s first go through who’s what on this team. Under contract for this season includes Isaac Okoro, Dylan Windler, Dean Wade, and Lamar Stevens.
Brandon Goodwin and Moses Brown have qualifying offer the team can go in on. R.J. Nembhard is on a two-day deal.While, Ed Davis, Tim Frazier, and Rajon Rondo are free agents. For this exercise, anyone that has any type of deal in place, be it a qualifying offer, two-way, or fully guaranteed will be considered the remaining talent from which Seattle and Las Vegas can select.
That means that Davis, Frazier, and Rondo are out.
That means the Cavs have seven potential guys the opposing teams can select. Now, I’m not high on Okoro by any means, however, I 99% believe that neither team would take Love, so if you want to do a bit of gamesmanship, you can gamble on that theory, and leave Love unprotected and protect Okoro if you’re so inclined to.
I don’t think he’s turning into a reliable scorer. He’s a fast break, inside the paint type of scorer, and hasn’t shown much more than that at any point in his career. He isn’t good enough defensively to warrant the offensive vortex he creates. So I’m not keen on protecting him and I don’t think you’re getting more than a second-round pick for him on his own.
So I’m not protecting him.
The rest are pretty self-evident.
The Unprotected: Isaac Okoro, Dylan Windler, Dean Wade, Lamar Stevens, Brandon Goodwin, Moses Brown, R.J. Nembhard
Now, we’re looking at his from a Seattle/Las Vegas perspective. To get a better idea of what three players may be most likely to go, let’s look at the expansion drafts and NBA drafts every year the NBA brought a new team into the league since 1988.
In1988 the Heats’ first three expansion picks were Arvid Kramer, Billy Thompson, and Fred Roberts. Their first-round draft pick was Rony Seikaly. Seikaly was a good hand, but Kramer and Roberts never played for the Heat. Thompson had two solid years but that’s it.
Grade: C+
The other team from that year was the Hornets. Their first three picks in the expansion draft were Dell Curry, Dave Hoppen, and Muggys Bogues, while their first rookie taken was Twitter’s Rex Chapman. Of those four guys, I guess you could say what happened to Hoppen? He didn’t turn out nearly well as that word-play. Bogues and Curry were mainstays in Charlotte for nearly a decade-plus each, and Chapman is most famous for his tweeting but he was a good young player for them for a few years.
Grade: A
In 1989, were the Magic and Timberwolves.
The Magic picked Sidney Green, Reggie Theus, and Terry Catledge in the expansion draft, with Nick Anderson being their rookie selection. Anderson had a good career in Orlando, and Catledge had a few good years, but Green and Theus made no impact. Theus was a former All-Star but he was washed by the time he ended up in Orlando.
Grade: D+
The Timberwolves’ first three picks were Rick Mahorn, Tyrone Corbin, and Steve Johnson, while their first rookie pick was Pooh Richardson. Mahorn and Johnson made no impact, while Corbin and Richardson were solid picks. Johnson was an All-Star as well when he arrived in Minnesota but was dealing with major injuries that sapped him of his skills.
Grade: D+
In 1995, the Vancouver Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors joined the league.
The Raptors picked B.J. Armstrong, Tony Massenburg, and Andrés Guibert in the expansion draft and then nabbed Damon Stoudamire in the rookie draft. Armstrong demanded a trade and never played for Toronto, Massneburg played months for the team, while Guibert never joined the franchise. Stoudamire played two and a half seasons before being traded after refusing to extend his deal.
Grade: F
The Grizzlies picked Greg Anthony (yes that Greg Anthony), Rodney Dent, Antonio Harvey, and Bryant “Big Country” Reeves. Anthony had a few good years in Vancouver, while Reeves was a star in the making before his back went out. Dent and Harvey were non-factors.
Grade: C
In 2004 the Bobcats entered the league and no draft was had, as they were the only team. Their top picks ended up being Primož Brezec, Matt Carol, Gerald Wallace, and Jason Kapono. They also selected Zaza Pachulia but traded him before the amateur draft. In the amateur draft, they selected Emeka Okafor second overall, the highest draft pick by any new franchise since 1988.
Grade: B-
So what did we learn? Selecting older talent usually isn’t the best idea. Guys who fit a scheme and a purpose end up lasting longer than anything. The same goes for guys who are drafted as rookies in systems. So it basically comes down to the idea of what makes a team a team. What is their identity?
Well, the best bet is to go young, as the Charlotte Hornets took five years to have a winning season, the Charlotte Bobcats took six, The Timberwolves took nine, The Grizzlies also took nine, the Heat took six, The Raptors took five and the Magic took five as well. You’re looking at an average of six seasons at least before you have a winning ball club.
So with that said, who would we take in the expansion draft?
The 3 likeliest to be selected
So for most of these entries, we’ve looked at this from the perspective of the Cavs. Now it’s time to put our drafting caps on. The players we have unprotected are Isaac Okoro, Dylan Windler, Dean Wade, Lamar Stevens, Brandon Goodwin, Moses Brown, and R.J. Nembhard. It doesn’t matter if we’re Seattle or Las Vegas in this scenario it all depends on what kind of team we want.
So I think that gives us three obvious picks. If we want a defensive-minded team, we go with Okoro. If we want a pace and space squad, where we’re chucking shots like the Steve Nash suns, we’re going with Dylan Windler. If we want a more traditional team, we go with Lamar Stevens, who’s shown to be an interesting option off the bench and could be a good sixth or seventh guy for an expansion squad.
For the sake of the exercise, we’re not going to cop out by just saying the three best options are Stevens, Windler, and Okoro. We’re going to actually pick.
Isaac Okoro
Why Okoro? He’s strong, a hard worker and a good enough defender to be in the top seven guys in a rotation. Why not Okoro? He’s got no mid-range or three-point shot you can rely on, and he’s offensively limited unless he’s cutting to the basket or in transition.
Dylan Windler
Why Windler? He’s a good floor spacer in theory though he’s not been a great shooter since entering the NBA. He’s not that tested, having only played 80-some games, so there’s potential and he’s a solid defender. Why not Windler? He’s already in his late-20s, he’s injury-prone, and he’s not proven to be a good NBA shooter, despite being drafted for that very reason.
Lamar Stevens
Why Stevens? He’s versatile, and a good defender. He can guard the low post or the wing, but he does lose some quality the further out he goes. Why not Stevens? He’s versatile but doesn’t excel at anyone’s position, plus he’s undersized as a low-post defender.
The Pick
Regardless of who is picking, I think the pick that makes the most sense is Stevens. Sure, Okoro is a top 5 pick in the draft but he shouldn’t have been. His offense is the worst on the team, and while he’s athletic, he’s not going to put up points consistently. High ceiling, deep floor. If he doesn’t get better he’s an albatross that will erase whatever positive impact his defense provides. Windler may be the least known quantity and that is both why he’s interesting and not interesting. You don’t know what you’re going to get with him, so why bother? There’s no baseline. Stevens isn’t flashy but he is what he is. He’ll be the most consistent player of the three. Okoro and Windler have higher ceilings but deeper floors. That’s why the pick is Stevens.
Pick: Lamar Stevens