Numbers don’t lie and the Cleveland Browns fell for the same trap as other NFL teams in the 2023 NFL Draft.
The Cleveland Browns wasted a fifth-round pick on UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. “Wasted” may be a strong word, but facts don’t lie. No quarterback has made a Pro Bowl after being drafted in the 5th round dating back to 1994.
In fact, historically, only one quarterback was drafted in the fifth round and made the Pro Bowl. That man is Mark Brunell, the former Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback. No quarterback from the fifth round has ever made it to the Pro Bowl before or after Brunell; at least since the NFL merger. Moreover, only one quarterback in the last 10 years has made a Pro Bowl outside of the top two rounds; Dak Prescott.
According to hard stats, drafting a quarterback outside the first, and sometimes the second round is just foolish. You’re wasting a draft spot on a guy who will likely be off the team in a matter of months. After four years that player is going to be off the team he was drafted to. Usually in less than two full seasons. After five years, that quarterback is likely out of the NFL entirely.
Looking back over the last four years, only 53.3% of quarterbacks are still on the team that drafted them. If you remove the former rookies of the 2022 NFL Draft, only 36% of post-first-round quarterback picks from ’19-’21 are still on the team that drafted them.
Over the last four years, about 23% of quarterbacks taken after the first round are already out of the league. That number leaps when you go back just one more year to 2018, as 62.5% of quarterbacks taken after the first round are already out of the league. Most are just entering the prime of their athletic life, and now they’re playing in the XFL or USFL if they’re lucky.
Considering the league is all about “value”, why is it that experts still overvalue quarterbacks?
What does this mean for the Cleveland Browns and Dorian Thompson-Robinson
The numbers don’t lie, the Browns didn’t draft some super prospect in Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The odds that Thompson-Robinson becomes a genuine standout player for the Browns aren’t high. In 53 seasons, only one quarterback, Brunell, ever found success after being taken in the fifth round.
Andrew Berry doesn’t have the best track record of taking first-rounders, and now everyone thinks this rookie is going to do something no one else has done in 30 years. What data do you have to support this? Quarterbacks don’t transition well to the NFL. It’s a super important position with very few actually good players to fill it.
Historically, it’s probably the position with the highest rate of failure. That’s not just with later-round picks either, there’s a reason why starting-caliber quarterbacks can play 10, 15, or 20 years and not worry about being replaced. There aren’t many “great” quarterbacks out there. Maybe anywhere from 5-10 really, truly great quarterbacks at a time. That’s usually it. It’s why it’s among the highest turnover positions in the NFL.
And why it has the highest failure rate too.
Over the last 10 years, only four quarterbacks out of 83 have become “franchise guys” after being drafted in the second round or later, and three of those guys were second-round picks.
That means from the third round to the seventh round, one player, Dak Prescott, has been the only NFL Pro Bowl-caliber player. Meaning that it’s far likelier that Thompson-Robinson is out of the NFL in two years than it is if he’s a Pro Bowl-caliber or even a regular starter.
If teams know that running backs and middle linebackers aren’t worth picks in the first round or so, and that punters, kickers, and long-snappers are better left for undrafted free agents; why do NFL teams continue to fall for the lie that a franchise quarterback can be found after the second round?
And if you’re not drafting Thompson-Robinson to be an eventual starter, why draft him at all with three quarterbacks already on your roster?
NFL Draft Data over the last 10 Years
2022 NFL Draft
- Standout: Brock Purdy
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 8
- No. still on the original team: 8
- Average length of time with original team: +1.0 seasons (and counting)
- No. still in the league: 8
- No. of total starts: 17
- Never Played a Snap: 2 (so far)
2021 NFL Draft :
- Standout: Davis Mills
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 5
- No. still on the original team: 3
- Average length of time with original team: 1.4 seasons (and counting)
- No. still in the league: 5
- No. of total starts: 30 (26 via Davis Mills)
- Never Played a Snap: 0
2020
- Standout: Jalen Hurts
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 9
- No. still on the original team: 4
- Average length of time with original team: 1.16 seasons (and counting)
- No. still in the league: 4
- No. of total starts: 40 (36 via Jalen Hurts)
- Never Played a Snap: 3
2019
- Standout: Gardner Minshew
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 8
- No. still on the original team: 1
- Average length of time with original team: 2.5 seasons (and counting)
- No. still in the league: 6
- No. of total starts: 54 (24 via Gardner Minshew, 21 via Drew Lock)
- Never Played a Snap: 1
2018
- Standout: Mason Rudolf (unsigned currently)
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 8
- No. still on the original team: 0
- Average length of time with original team: 1 season
- No. still in the league: 3
- No. of total starts: 19 (10 via Rudolph, 7 via Mike White)
- Never Played a Snap: 3
2017
- Standout: C.J. Beathard
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 7
- No. still on the original team: 0
- Average length of time with original team: 1.5
- No. still in the league: 3
- No. of total starts: 35 (15 via DeShone Kizer, 12 via C.J. Beathard)
- Never Played a Snap: 1
2016
- Standout: Dak Prescott
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 12
- No. still on the original team: 1
- Average length of time with original team: 1 Season (not including Dak Prescott)
- No. still in the league: 4
- No. of total starts: 178 (48 via Jacoby Brissett, 97 via Dak Prescott)
- Never Played a Snap: 2
2015
- Standout: Trevor Siemian
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 5
- No. still on the original team: 0
- Average length of time with original team: 2.9 seasons
- No. still in the league: 0
- No. of total starts: 49 (30 via Trevor Siemian, 9 via Brett Hundley)
- Never Played a Snap: 1
2014
- Standout: Derek Carr/Jimmy Garoppolo
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 11
- No. still on the original team: 0
- Average length of time with original team: 1.63 seasons
- No. still in the league: 2 (as quarterbacks)
- No. of total starts: 224, *(142 vai Derek Carr, 57 via Jimmy Garoppolo)
- Never Played a Snap: 3
2013
- Standout: Geno Smith
- No. of post-1st round QB’s Taken: 10
- No. still on the original team: 0
- Average length of time with original team: 2.75 seasons
- No. still in the league: 2
- No. of total starts: 94 (51 via Geno Smith, 31 via Mike Glennon
- Never Played a Snap: 3
Total
- No. of Pro Bowl-caliber standouts: 4
- Total no. of non-first-round QBs: 83
- Total no. still on original team: 19
- 10-year average length of time on first team: 1.68 seasons
- Total no. still in the league: 37
- Total no. of starts: 740
- Total QBs to never play: 19
Pro Bowlers By Rounds
- Round Two (3): Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Jalen Hurts
- Rounds Three through Seven (1): Dak Prescott
What is likely to happen to Dorian Thompson-Robinson?
Dorian Thompson-Robinson will likely be off the team after the 2024 season, but maybe even sooner if the Cleveland Browns struggle in 2023. If the team struggles, it’s likely that Andrew Berry and Kevin Strefanski will be out the door, and the new GM and head coach will likely clean house to some degree and bring in their own guys.
Now, you may say that there’s always a chance, and you’re right, there is a 5% chance historically that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will defy expectations, prove everyone wrong and become the face of the franchise for the next two decades.
You’re just as likely to find a game-changing quarterback as an undrafted free agent as you are outside of the third round. Guys like Kurt Warner and Tony Romo prove that scouts don’t get it right, and considering the failure rate of the quarterbacks taken just five years ago, don’t get it right often at all. They fail, constantly.
That’s because drafting is an inexact science. While I can safely say with impunity that Thompson-Robinson had no business being drafted by the Browns, not when holes still exist on the team, the facts are that he could actually turn into something.
He could turn into a starter, a Pro Bowler, or even a Hall of Famer. That’s all possible. I accept that it’s possible and I don’t doubt that it’s possible. All this is to say is that it’s not likely. It’s not even kind of likely. The chance of it happening is pretty astronomical, but not impossible.
So no, the Browns shouldn’t have taken a quarterback in the draft, certainly not one whose ceiling is that of Joshua Dobbs.
Seems counterproductive. You’d think the acquisition of Kellen Mond would have reminded the Browns just how futile mid-to-late-round quarterback picks actually are.