The Guardians' 2023 MLB postseason outlook doesn't look promising. As of August 18, they sit 8.5 games back of the American League's final wild-card spot with just 41 games remaining and several teams needing to be leapfrogged.
Barring a miraculous run, Cleveland will likely miss the playoffs for the third time since 2019. Our +29000 odds to win the 2023 World Series (No. 20) on FanDuel Sportsbook are a good indication that likely won't look more optimistic any time soon.
What hurts the most is that things looked promising for the Guardians back in July when they led the AL Central by 0.5 games heading into the All-Star festivities. Instead, Cleveland's gone 13-18 since the break due to general manager Mike Chernoff's poor in-season choices.
Here's a look at three midseason decisions by Chernoff that killed the Guardians in 2023.
3 Mike Chernoff Mistakes That Killed 2023 Guardians
1. Not Adding Another Starting Pitcher
One of the reasons why Cleveland qualified for the 2022 playoffs was due to a reliable pitching rotation. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case this year due to the injury bug.
Triston McKenzie has only pitched twice this season due to a lingering elbow injury while Shane Bieber is still on the 60-day injured list and likely won't pitch until September as he deals with elbow inflammation.
Even though the Guardians' pitching woes have been clear for months, Chernoff didn't do anything to address the issue heading up to the trade deadline. Instead of adding a starter who can eat some inning before McKenzie and Bieber return, he stood pat with his current group.
While I didn't expect Chernoff to go out and acquire a bigger name like Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer, any sort of additional pitching help would've been an improvement. I understand when a GM is confident in his players, but there comes a time when help is required.
Had Cleveland acquired just one bottom-of-the-rotation arm, there's a decent chance that the playoffs would be a more achievable goal at the moment.
2. Trade Aaron Civale
When Bieber and McKenzie were taken out by injuries, Aaron Civale was a shining spot in the Guardians' rotation. The former 2016 third-round went 5-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 13 starts before he was shipped off to the Tampa Bay Rays for top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo.
Although some fans were happy to see Cleveland selling high on Civale, others were disappointed as his departure was a huge blow to the rotation. He also hasn't regressed since joining the Rays, pitching to a 1-1 record with a 2.93 ERA in three starts.
Manzardo is an exciting prospect who can be a difference-maker if he reaches his potential, but that's far from a guarantee. Some prospects reach a team's goals for them while others crumble as time goes on. It's just the nature of the sport.
What also hurts is that Civale is still arbitration-eligible through the 2025 MLB season. It's hard not to like the idea of what he, McKenzie, and Bieber could've done over the next few years. Instead, Chernoff needs to find another player to fill Civale's spot this offseason.
It's too early to say which team "won" the trade, but it's going to hurt Guardians fans a lot if Civale continues pitching at this level while Manzardo fades away. In other words, not only did this trade hurt his team in 2023, but Chernoff's decision could impact Cleveland for years to come.
3. Not Improving the Offense
Having a reliable rotation is necessary to win baseball games, but so is the ability to put up runs. Much to Guardians fans' dismay, their team ranks near the bottom of the MLB when it comes to the following important offensive stats:
- Runs per game: 4.05, No. 27
- Home runs per game: 0.73, No. 30
- Walks per game: 2.87, No. 25
- OPS: .963, No. 26
Even if the pitching rotation was in perfect health, challenging for a playoff spot is near-impossible with an attack that uninspiring. It's a key reason why Cleveland has a losing record in one-run games (21-24, 46.7%).
At first, it seemed like Chernoff was gearing up to bring in some new bats around the trade deadline when underachievers Josh Bell and Amed Rosario were sent packing. The only issue is that the Guardians didn't acquire any MLB-ready bats along the way.
To understand how much the lack of moves hurt the Guardians' attack, their 46 runs are the fewest in the Majors since August 1. The finger can be pointed at certain players for underperforming, but Chernoff's lack of at least one rental bat is inexcusable.
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