Considering the Browns have never won the AFC North and the Bengals how won the division in two straight seasons, it's pretty notable that Cincy isn't even favored by a field goal against Cleveland (2.5-point spread as of writing) to kick off the 2023 season.
When you consider the public perceptions of the two teams — that the Bengals are a Super Bowl contender while the Browns typically get no respect — it's even more interesting that this game is projected to be such a close one. People are taking notice, and with a matchup this tight, Cleveland is absolutely capable of kicking off the season with a big upset win.
Here are three reasons the Browns are going to upset the Bengals on Sunday.
Why the Browns Will Upset the Bengals
1. Joe Burrow Can't Handle Our Pass Rush
Listing the three reasons as "1. Myles Garrett, 2. Za'Darius Smith, 3. Dalvin Tomlinson" was kind of tempting, and this is really the biggest key to a Browns upset.
The Cleveland pass rush is going to be one of the best in the NFL. Garrett is the best rusher there is, and he'll finally actually have a solid supporting cast around him. Upgrading from Jadeveon Clowney to Za'Darius Smith means Garrett might finally not be the most double-teamed rusher in the league.
And going from Jordan Elliott to Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris on the interior means quarterbacks will have nowhere to go to escape those edge rushers.
This unit will be a key against every opponent, but it's especially true against the Bengals.
Burrow was the NFL's most-sacked QB in 2021 and still suffered the sixth-most sacks in 2022. Pro Football Focus ranked Cincinnati's offensive line No. 30 in pass protection last year. And now Burrow is playing hurt, too, getting back on the field after missing the entire preseason with a calf injury.
He's going to face pressure every single time he drops back, and that could be especially disastrous if his mobility isn't 100% there. This is going to be a frustrating, painful afternoon for Burrow.
2. Nick Chubb is Going to Feast
Cleveland's rushing attack needed no upgrades this offseason. The o-line ranked No. 8 in run blocking and the offense ranked No. 3 in rushing according to PFF's 2022 rankings (after both ranking top-five in 2021 as well).
Nick Chubb is arguably the best pure runner in the NFL, and when you pair him with an elite o-line there's nobody more dangerous on the ground.
Now Chubb gets to start off the season against a Bengals defense that PFF hasn't graded any better than bottom-12 against the run since 2018.
Chubb has tallied 8 touchdowns and gone over 100 yards in three of his last five games against Cincinnati, and he’s averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry in two of those last four matchups.
This is also likely an upgraded passing attack from what surrounded Chubb over the last couple of seasons. Having that threat keeping defenses honest could serve to open up even more running room for our RB1.
The only thing that would really threaten to hold back his production is if the game gets out of hand and the Browns are forced to take a more pass-heavy approach, but with the pass rush keeping the Cincy offense in check, their D will be in for a full four-quarter dose of Chubb.
Chubb may well kick off the season as the NFL's leading rusher in Week 1, and even if he doesn't he'll have been at the center of why Cleveland starts off 1-0.
3. Deshaun Watson Has Enough Weapons
Going back to that improved passing game that I alluded to above, it may not be at the core of an upset, but it will firmly be at least "enough," which is better than Browns fans have been able to say most years.
I think Deshaun Watson turns it around this year and plays at a Pro Bowl level, but that's more of a gut-feeling hunch. I'm not going to simply rely on that being true before we see it happen. But even if Watson does play at a mediocre level, Cleveland has finally surrounded its quarterback with enough talent that even mediocre play can do the trick.
Even when Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry were supposed to carry the passing game, there was no depth. And two weapons just doesn't cut it in the modern NFL.
But now we have three legitimate threats at wide receiver with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones on the outside and Elijah Moore looking great in the slot. David Njoku also seems to finally be coming into his own and living up to the potential he's flashed for years.
The Bengals can't stop Chubb unless they totally sell out against the run to do it. And if they do, this passing game is finally enough to punish them through the air.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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