Another year of disappointment for the Cleveland Browns, but perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel. The Browns have built a true contender in the AFC North and won 11 regular season games in 2023 despite not having Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb, and Jack Conklin for most of the season. How was that possible?
Well, the Browns played elite defense all year, and they got a couple of good games out of Dorian Thompson-Robinson as well as a stretch of ridiculous play by veteran journeyman Joe Flacco. But where do the Browns go from here? Along with winning 11 games comes a new set of rather high expectations.
And those expectations are sending a number of members of the Browns' organization out onto some thin ice this offseason.
1. General Manager Andrew Berry
I think one of the people within this Browns organization clearly on thin ice this offseason is general manager Andrew Berry. Berry is the one who pulled the trigger on the Deshaun Watson deal, speaking both to the trade and the contract. Up to this point, the trade hasn't crippled the roster (obviously) but those effects may not be felt until this coming season.
The contract with Watson has obviously been a bust thus far, but it was necessary to facilitate the deal in the first place or Watson would be in Atlanta or somewhere else. The Browns did what they had to do to get "their guy" in the building and that deal is the one that will define Andrew Berry's tenure with the team.
Fair or not.
Ultimately, I think Berry has done a lot of good for this roster and has put something special together, but the Watson move has him on some thin ice heading into 2024.
2. Deshaun Watson, Quarterback
I don't think there's any way you can look at the Cleveland Browns and see Deshaun Watson as anything but treading thin ice this offseason. Watson signed an unprecedented $230 million deal with the Browns in 2022, bringing with him a ton of off-field baggage. It obviously wasn't a unanimously "liked" deal by the Browns' fan base, especially when Watson didn't look great after serving a suspension last season.
Watson's struggles sort of continued into the 2023 season. He certainly wasn't the dominant player we saw back in 2018-19 with the Houston Texans, the guy the Browns traded and paid for. Watson played just five games and change last season and has appeared in just 12 games in two seasons with the Browns.
He put up better numbers in his rookie year with Houston when he played just seven games than he has in two "seasons" with the Cleveland Browns.
What are the Browns supposed to do about this? They made this bed, they have to lay in it. Watson's time in Cleveland has done anything but inspire confidence that he's going to help this team win a Super Bowl, even though the Browns have won eight of the 12 games he's started.
The fact that the jury is still out on Deshaun Watson as a viable franchise QB for the Browns nearly two years after the trade and deal were made is a major concern.
3. Nick Chubb, Running Back
Nick Chubb has been the heart and soul of this Cleveland Browns offense, basically since he was drafted. He's become one of the best players in franchise history and is absolutely one of the most effective overall running backs in the entire NFL right now.
Unfortunately, his season-ending injury in 2023 couldn't have come at a worse time for both he and the organization in terms of tough decisions having to be made, not to mention the difficulty of the Browns' offense trying to win games without him.
Not that the Browns are eager to find $12 million in cap savings by rushing to cut Nick Chubb, but coming off of a major injury, they face only $4 million in dead cap with those large savings if they move on from Chubb this offseason, just a couple of months after he turned 28 years old.
This seems like the "right" time to get out of Chubb's deal and perhaps reset at the position, especially because the Browns are going to have to do financial gymnastics in the 2024 offseason to make necessary additions elsewhere. Could they potentially trade Chubb to the highest bidder?
The Browns are stuck between a rock and hard place because of how competitive they were this year and how much Nick Chubb could help, but if he's not going to be ready for the start of next season or there's a chance it will take him a year to get back up to full speed, then they might consider moving on in 2024.
4. Elijah Moore, Wide Receiver
One of the biggest acquisitions the Cleveland Browns made in the 2023 offseason was trading for wide receiver Elijah Moore, formerly of the New York Jets. Moore's playmaking ability was on display with the Jets in his rookie year back in 2021, but his production took a dip and he fell out of favor with the coaching staff in year two.
The Jets sent him off to Cleveland in 2023 and the Browns could not have been more ecstatic to get him for the price of moving down in round two.
And Browns fans were absolutely foaming at the mouth to see Moore in action with Amari Cooper after Moore was making headline after headline at Browns training camp in 2023. Unfortunately, it just didn't transfer to the regular season. He ended up catching 59 passes, a career-high, but the effectiveness on a per-catch basis was simply not there.
Especially early in the season, the Browns were trying to fabricate touches for Moore, but to no avail. It wasn't really until Joe Flacco took over that we really started to see the higher volume translate to results. Simply put, though, the results weren't good enough.
The Browns need Moore to be a true WR2, and the path they take at receiver this offseason will be very telling of whether they believe Moore has the potential to still be that. He is entering a contract year in 2024 and for a player that received over 100 targets, he needs to do a lot more with the opportunities.
5. Jedrick Wills, Offensive Tackle
Nobody likes to face the reality of a failed first-round pick, but the Cleveland Browns might be doing exactly that with Jedrick Wills.
Taken in the star-studded first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Jedrick Wills looked like he was going to be on his way to being a perennial Pro Bowl type of player for Cleveland. His career got off to a great start, but unfortunately, it didn't stay on that trajectory.
Wills has regressed in recent years. His play has not only declined, but his availability has been spotty as well. He missed nine games this past season, and a handful of games in his first two years in the league. The Browns picked up his fifth-year option last offseason, so they are on the hook for over $14 million in base salary this coming year.
Given how well Geron Christian played down the stretch of last season, don't be shocked at all to see the Browns shop Wills in the 2024 offseason to see if some team might want to trade for him. If that ends up being the case, the Browns could save over $12 million and Wills could get a fresh start elsewhere.
6. Kevin Stefanski, Head Coach
This one is interesting, because I don't personally perceive Kevin Stefanski as being on the hot seat or anything in 2024. Every NFL coach is technically on the hot seat, but the job Stefanski did in 2023 should undoubtedly buy him a couple of years, right?
Stefanski may not be on the "hot seat" but I think he's definitely on thin ice heading into the 2024 season. If Andrew Berry is on thin ice for the Deshaun Watson move, then he and Stefanski may be going down with the same ship, right?
It's not like Stefanski is going to be absolved if that ends up being a complete failure.
But the reason Stefanski finds himself skating on thin ice this offseason is really due to the fact that the expectations are going to be much higher for the Browns in 2024. Fans are going to expect the team to be able to win at least 11 games, certainly if the roster is healthier. They are going to expect contention in the AFC North.
And I don't think those expectations are unwarranted. Stefanski needs to do more than just get the best out of injury replacements. He needs to take this team to the next level. Especially because of how much success Baker Mayfield is having elsewhere, people have pointed the finger directly at Stefanski, wondering why he couldn't make that work.
The Browns fired offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and a number of other assistants as we speak. There is a clear message being sent by the organization that anything less than winning in the postseason might result in jobs being lost.
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