The AFC North is more competitive than ever in 2023, and Week 10 brings what could prove to be one of the Cleveland Browns' most important games of the season: a matchup with the division-leading Baltimore Ravens.
The Browns are worryingly banged up heading into this matchup, but optimism is sitll high among fans in Cleveland, and this is going to be a hard-fought battle one way or another.
Anything can happen in a tense rivalry game like this one, and here are some bold predictions that Browns fans and bettors should look out for in Week 10.
Browns vs. Ravens Bold Predictions
1. Elijah Moore Leads the Browns in Receiving
It's hard not to start with the Browns' offensive line injuries when thinking about this matchup.
Jedrick Wills Jr. is out and Dawand Jones is questionable. That means the Browns could be without their three top tackles (Jack Conklin is also obviously still out). That's a worrying place to be against any opponent, but a matchup with a dangerous Ravens' pass-rush only makes things worse.
James Hudson and Geron Christian starting at the two tackle spots could be a nightmare, epsecially with Deshaun Watson still banged up.
Watson's going to have no time to sit in the pocket, and with his shoulder injury, he may be more hesitant than usual to start moving around and scrambling. That means we shouldn't expect any real downfield passing attack from the Browns.
That means we should see Elijah Moore, not Amari Cooper, lead the team in receiving.
Cooper has been terrific this season, leading the team in receiving by a big margin, but he’s been doing it on almost exclusively deep passes. His average depth of target (ADoT) is 15.5 yards, and even if we just look at receptions, his average catch is coming 14.5 yards downfield.
Moore, in comparison, has made his catches an average of 5.8 yards downfield with an 8.3-yard ADoT. In other words, Moore's working underneath while Coop works downfield.
Without time to get the ball to Cooper on those deep routes, it's Moore's quick-hitters that will be the engine that drives the offense.
DraftKings Sportsbook has a big discrepancy in Cooper and Moore's receiving totals though. Moore needs just 34 yards to hit the over on his receiving line, while Cooper's is set at a much loftier 53.5.
2. Browns Hold Lamar Jackson to Fewer than 30 Rushing Yards
I know Browns fans probably don’t want me to say a single word about that first game against the Baltimore Ravens from Week 4, but hear me out.
Lamar Jackson had a pair of short touchdowns, but other than that he really didn’t do any damage on the ground. Jim Schwartz’ defense held him to 27 yards on 9 carries, and that average of 3.0 yards per attempt was his lowest in any game so far this season as well as his fourth-lowest over the last three years.
Sometimes players have off days seemingly at random, but that wasn't the case with Jackson against the Browns. An elite pass-rush doens't always translate to stopping a rushing quarterback (players who get too eager to rush can leave room to run), but the Browns' rushers are well disciplined and well coached. And behind them, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah flying around in support will make it hard for Jackson to get anywhere.
Lamar is averaging just shy of 50 rushing yards per game (48.9), but he shouldn't even come close to sniffing that in Week 10.
DraftKings Sportsbook isn't giving the Cleveland D much respect here. They do have his rushing total set below his season average, but not by much.
So even if you think I'm being too optimistic in expecting him below 30, all you need is for him to rush for 43 yards or fewer (something he's already done in four of nine games in 2023) for the Under to hit here.
3. Browns Win the First Half
Back to the concerning side of things, I just can't think about this game without thinking about the potential disaster the Browns' injuries could cause here.
I know I'm being pessimistic, but if the line up front collapses, what are the chances Watson's able to stay healthy and effective for hte entire game? All it takes is one bad hit to suddenly crush the Cleveland passing attack for the afternoon.
Obviously the longer the game goes on, the more chance there is of that happening. That's why rather than betting the full-game spread, I'm looking at just the first half.
The Browns' defense is good enough to keep things competitive against anyone in the AFC North, and Watson doing enough to keep the offense from being totally inept is all the support the D really needs. These teams are familiar with each other, and that should keep things low-scoring early on too. In a close, low-scoring start, all it takes is one or two big plays to win the half for the Browns.
On DraftKings you don't even need them to win the half, though. The 3.5-point spread is an important key number — since a field goal separating the teams (a very common situation in NFL games, obviously) would still make your Browns bet a winner.
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