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Cleveland Indians: Wild Card Chances Slip With Kipnis’ Play

By Joe Russo

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The Cleveland Indians have been battling to get over the .500 record as well as competing for a wild card spot. They need all of their players, especially key individuals like 2B Jason Kipnis to play up to their ability. However, that has not been happening.

By no stretch am I solely blaming Jason Kipnis for the Cleveland Indians’ fading playoff chances. We’ll identify plenty of other reasons in the days to come, but Kipnis is definitely one of the major reasons why the Indians are seeing their hopes of making the playoffs fade away.

Let’s flash back to the first half of the season. Kipnis was coming off a dismal 2014 season where he was hurt and out of sorts at the plate. In exactly 500 at bats, Kipnis managed a .240 / .310 / .330 slash line with only 120 hits, 6 home runs, and 41 RBI.

That was far from his All-Star pace the prior season. However, the start of 2015 was a return to form for the second baseman, who made another appearance in the All-Star Game this season.

Before the break, he was among the league leaders in hitting, with a slash line of .323 / .401 / .487 with 112 hits, 6 homers, and 37 RBI. It looked as if Kipnis had fully recovered from his down year and was looking like the surefire star he appeared to be in 2013.

Unfortunately the second half of the season has been as unkind to Kipnis as it has been fortuitous to Francisco Lindor. As Lindor paces most of baseball in hitting since the break, Kipnis has seen his numbers plummet.

Since Kipnis appeared in his second All-Star game, he has put up an ugly slash line of .258 / .311 / .360 with only 46 hits, 2 homers, and 12 RBI. In fact, his average has trended downward for some time. As recently as June 29th, Kipnis was hitting .348 and pacing the American League. Since then?

Through July: .329

Through August: .319

Through September 23rd: .301

But those running totals look great, right? But instead of an overall average, let’s put in his average by month over the same stretch.

July: .280

August: .241

September: .186

Those are not the batting averages of an All-Star leadoff hitter. It was probably unrealistic to think that Kipnis would keep up the blistering pace from the early part of the year, where he hit .429 in May and .358 in June. But the second half drought was not expected to be this severe.

Perhaps the culprit is that balky shoulder, which sidelined Kipnis the first couple of weeks in August, missing games from August 2nd through the 17th. Maybe that put him out of rhythm or the pain has been too much? Regardless the statistical drop off is real nonetheless. Even more advanced stats can help provide some insight.

– On the year, Kipnis has hit a line drive on only 32% of his plate appearances, suggesting that even though he had been hitting, he was not driving the ball with any authority, leading an astonishing .352 batting average on balls in play. This type of average without any type of power is simply unsustainable.

– Adding to the “power” issue is that Kipnis hits a home run once every 65.6 at bats. The league average is nearly half of that at 35.7.

– Kipnis has also faltered in situations with two strikes. He is hitting only .218 with two strike counts. To make it worse, he also batting only .261 with two outs and .237 in any count when he is behind in the count.

– I will leave the most interesting stat for last. Need more proof that as Kipnis goes, so goes the Tribe? He has hit .340 in games where the Indians win, but only .262 in losses.

Again, Kipnis isn’t the only reason that the Tribe will fall short of the wild card. There are plenty of other factors, but Kipnis’ performance through the dog days of summer has not lived up to the lofty expectations set by his sizzling start.

Next: How Many Wins Do The Cleveland Indians Need For A Wild Card Berth?

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