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2016 World Series: 3 Ways Josh Tomlin Can Shutdown The Chicago Cubs

By Evan Hablitzel

Jul 1, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Josh Tomlin (43) throws a pitch during the first inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 1, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Josh Tomlin (43) throws a pitch during the first inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /
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Josh Tomlin
Oct 15, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Josh Tomlin (43) looks for the sign against the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning of game two of the 2016 ALCS playoff baseball series at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports /

Induce Ground Balls

This season, when Josh Tomlin induced 10 or more ground balls, he was 6-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 11 starts. When inducing less than 10 balls on the ground, the Texas product went 7-6 with an ERA of 4.79.

A quick look at Tomlin’s splits involving batted balls reveals its importance:

  • 43.5 percent ground balls: PA- 254, BA- .157, OBP- .157 
  • 28.4 percent line drives: PA- 166, BA- .673, OBP- .669
  • 26.7 percent fly balls: PA- 156, BA- .229, OBP- .224
  • 1.4 percent bunts: PA- 8, BA- .250, OBP- .250

The Indians were sixth in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season (.696). Defensive Efficiency is the percentage of balls in play converted to outs. Hence the need for a contact pitcher like Tomlin to keep the ball on the ground.

What about the Cubs? Their team splits just reiterate the importance of inducing ground balls.

Here are the Cubs numbers::

  • 42 percent ground balls: PA- 1,784, BA- .242, RBI- 152, OBP- 242
  • 26.3 percent line drives: PA- 1,114, BA- .672, RBI- 349, OBP- .670
  • 29.6 percent fly balls: PA- 1,256, BA- .170, RBI- 244, OBP- .670
  • 2.1 percent bunts: PA- 89, BA- .489, RBI- 11, OBP- .489

Tomlin walked only 20 batters this season in 174 innings pitched, the fewest in the league. He also only throws 3.60 pitches per batter and fans just 6.1 batters per nine innings, both the sixth lowest total in the MLB.

Bottom line, the Indians infield needs to play flawless defense behind Tomlin. Jason Kipnis cannot repeat his Game 2 performance. Kipnis committed two errors and his sprained ankle looks to be limiting his range at second base.

Tomlin was third in the league in home runs allowed (36). If he can keep the ball in the park, preferably in the form of ground balls, I like the Indians chances.

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