Ohio State vs Clemson: Six Burning Questions On The Fiesta Bowl
By Joe Russo
The Fiesta Bowl is almost here! What must we keep an eye out during the Ohio State/Clemson game?
Before the ball drops to usher in 2017, Ohio State fans will be settled in to watch this year’s Fiesta Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl also happens to be part of the semi playoff games this year in the College Football Playoffs.
Buckeye Nation has been anxiously awaiting a rematch with the program that handed Urban Meyer his only bowl loss since coming to Columbus, Ohio. To get you ready, we’ve got six key questions ahead of the Fiesta Bowl and our prediction on who will move on to play for the title!
1. Which position groups for each team look a little suspect?
The easy answer for Buckeye fans is their wide receiver group. Aside from Curtis Samuel, it has been a largely disappointing season from Noah Brown, K.J. Hill, and company.
In fact, Samuel has more than doubled up Brown’s production as the team’s leading receiver. He is the only player that the Clemson secondary needs to worry about in the passing game and should be mirrored by Cordrea Tankersley.
As for the Tigers, it’s their secondary that is in a bit of irony here. Tankersley is a good corner and there is speed with the Tigers’ secondary.
However, in the games where they lost or struggled, opposing quarterbacks tended to have big games. The Tigers’ secondary ranks only 28th in the country in yards allowed per game, so there is an opportunity there for the Buckeyes to go after that group as opposed to a rangy front seven.
2. Can OSU get a downfield passing game going?
As much as we want to say yes, it’s difficult to say so. I don’t think the Buckeyes need to attack the Tigers vertically to be successful. Clemson’s defense will certainly take their chances giving up big passes in favor of keeping the game between the tackles. That’s the blueprint followed by most defenses going up against J.T. Barrett and company.
That said, the downfield passing game can get going if there is a true commitment to running the ball. The strength of this offense is with Samuel, Barrett, and Mike Weber on the ground. If Ohio State can run the ball well and mix in enough misdirection/counter action to force the front seven to cover sideline to sideline, then there’s plenty of space for the passing game to take advantage.
3. Who wins the matchup between Clemson’s o-line against Ohio State’s d-line?
The key for the Ohio State defensive line is to contain Deshaun Watson. The Tigers offensive line rated out as the seventh best unit in the country according to Football Outsiders.
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This is bolstered by the second best sack rate in the country and their ability to keep Watson clean. Much of that has to do with Watson’s ability, but there is a reason he even has the time to make plays.
If you look closer, though, the overall ranking relies very heavily on those passing game stats. They are not nearly as strong against the run, with rankings in running categories that leave a lot to be desired for a team in the playoffs; Let alone one facing such an opportunistic secondary like the one the Buckeyes have.
Ohio State’s defensive line, though, rates in the top 10 in the very same run heavy stats that are referenced above for the Clemson offensive line. So at least as far as the run game analytics goes, the Buckeyes have a clear advantage in the trenches on the ground.
Against the pass, though, the Buckeyes are only 92nd in overall sack rate, a number that should give Buckeye fans some concern in the ability of the unit to hem in Watson.
As a result, you’ll likely see the “Rush Man” package from Greg Schiano and Larry Johnson through most of the game. This group has proven adept at stopping the run, even with Jalyn Holmes and Nick Bosa bumped inside. This gives Ohio State a unit better equipped to get after Watson while still being competitive against the running attack.
4. Can The Buckeyes Find Offensive Balance?
Of course! Not to repeat everything stated above, but so long as the Ohio State running game stretched the Clemson defense out wide Samuel and Marcus Baugh can exploit some openings in the seams.
The biggest question is will Brown actually be a factor? After the Oklahoma game, Brown was really a non-factor most of the season. If Tankersley trails Samuel, Brown will have to win his matchups with Ryan Carter or Mark Fields.
There are four All-ACC defenders out there for the Tigers and two in the secondary alone. So, it’s not as easy to find the balance that has eluded Ohio State all year. Just remember that Ohio State beat Michigan’s elite defense by running the ball 30 times with Barrett alone.
5. Who Is The Most Important Buckeye?
Barrett is without a doubt. This offense relies so heavily on his decision making and his ability to make plays. If he can’t complete the easy passes or read the zone action well, then the Clemson defense will control every second of the game.
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It’s a matter of which Barrett shows up for what is actually the biggest game of his career. Remember, he didn’t play in the 2014 playoffs and last year’s Fiesta Bowl was not part of the playoffs.
But what if we see the Barrett that just finds ways to win? The one that beat Penn State a year ago with his knee busted up or the one that shut up critics last year by proving he can convert in the red zone?
What if the Buckeyes get the two time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year Barrett instead of the Penn State 2016 Barrett version? He can be as dynamic as any quarterback in the country. With the extra practice time devoted to one opponent, there is little doubt that Meyer has him prepared to do big things.
6. Which Under The Radar Buckeye Will Play A Big Factor In The Fiesta Bowl?
Jerome Baker and Chris Worley are the picks here. We already mentioned that the Clemson offensive line’s overall ratings are boosted by their incredible sack rate. Part of that has been Watson’s ability to make plays on the move and e
scape trouble. The Buckeyes’ outside linebackers will play a big factor in preventing Watson from getting out on the edge.
Think of it this way. The Buckeye defensive line applies pressure and forces Watson to move out of the pocket. Who is out on the edge to keep Watson fr
om breaking free? While there might be a defensive end like Sam Hubbard or Tyquan Lewis giving chase, they will need help from someone at the next level. Enter Baker and Worley.
They are also crucial to limit Jordan Leggett, the Tiger’s All-ACC tight end’s production. He actually played the last time Ohio State faced Clemson in a bowl game. He’s more of a hybrid tight end that will be flexed out into space.
Baker and Worley will need to keep him from being a reliable check down option for Watson. Both linebackers will need to play their best two way game of the season. They did it against Jake Butt, so there is plenty of reason to be confident there.
Prediction: Clemson 42, Ohio State 38
This game just has the feel of a shoot out. It’s strength on strength in a lot of facets of the game, but there is a reason Watson was a Heisman finalist. The Tigers’ offense has more balance and their defense is every bit as good as the Silver Bullets.
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While I don’t expect a Tajh Boyd-like six touchdown game from Watson, I do expect him to play at an elite level. Will the Buckeyes play well? Absolutely, but even a well played game doesn’t get it done.