Francisco Lindor: Projecting His Next Cleveland Indians Contract

Francisco Lindor is already one of the greatest players in baseball. Here’s what it might take the Cleveland to re-sign their superstar shortstop.

Francisco Lindor has already been billed as the next big thing in the major leagues. In Cleveland, this shouldn’t be news to anyone. Ever since Lindor came up in 2015, he has endeared himself to Tribe fans with his defense, energy, and mature approach at the plate.

A year removed from a Platinum Glove season and fresh off his heroics in Texas, it’s time to take the extension talks seriously.

What would an extension for Lindor look like? There are two recent enough examples to point to that should frame the conversation. The first is the extension the San Francisco Giants gave Brandon Crawford. A top flight shortstop in his own right, Crawford signed a six-year deal worth $75 million, an average value of $12.5 million per season starting in his age 29 season. This deal bought out four full arbitration years and the Giants were rewarded with a 5.8 WAR 2016 campaign from the Team USA shortstop. He is also considered a Gold Glove caliber defensive player, so the Lindor comparison is about as sound as it can get.

As for a player at a different position but closer in age to Lindor, Freddie Freeman’s extension is another one to look at. Signed for his age 24 season, Freeman’s deal with the Atlanta Braves is an eight year, $135 million contract for an average value of $16.875 million per season. His 6.1 WAR in 2016 was helped by increased power numbers with 34 home runs. Granted, first base is a different position in baseball, where being a top hitter is valued above defensive prowess. But like Freeman, Lindor is entering his first extension talks with the team that drafted him after quickly establishing himself as a true star.

What does this all mean for Lindor? While Lindor outpaced both Crawford and Freeman in WAR last season at 6.3 WAR, it was primarily driven by the difference he makes in the field. His glove is what sets him apart from other shortstops, especially younger players like Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts at the same position. Compared directly to Crawford, Lindor is looking like the superior offensive player, hitting for a higher slash line and providing more (and improving) power.

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At age 23, the Indians need to lock in a long term deal that carries Lindor through his prime. A seven year deal has already been rumored and that time frame would be ideal, taking Lindor into the start of his thirties and perhaps that beginning of his “decline”. For a club that also likes to avoid arbitration fights, this is the easiest way to avoid any potential PR disasters that could arise from that. When Jason Kipnis signed his own six year, $52.5 million extension, the Tribe bought out multiple arbitration and free-agent years to keep him in Cleveland at an average value of $8.75 million.

If we have to speculate, Lindor’s deal should settle between $15-$16 million per season over that seven year span, making it a likely seven year, $112 million deal to keep Lindor’s best season in a Tribe uniform. It also wouldn’t surprise anyone if that average value pushed closer to $17 million.

Next: Is Carlos Santana's Extension On The Way?

We are in a new “Golden Age” for shortstops and Lindor is leading that group. Given his overall value to the team both at the plate and in the field, the Dolan’s would be wise to dig as deep as needed.

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Francisco Lindor: Projecting His Cleveland Indians Contract Extension

By Joe Russo | Apr 7, 2017

Francisco Lindor is already one of the greatest players in baseball. Here’s what it might take the Cleveland to re-sign their superstar shortstop.

More from Factory of Sadness