Cleveland Indians: Once an asset, starting pitching remains concerning
The Cleveland Indians starting rotation was once viewed as the team’s biggest asset — now it may be their biggest liability.
Despite Mike Clevinger’s impressive performance in the Cleveland Indians’ 2-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants Tuesday, the team’s rotation remains a liability. The Indians 1.5-game lead over the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central remains intact, but margin for error continues to narrow.
In 66 innings of work this season, Clevinger owns a 5-3 record with a 2.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP He’s given up just two earned runs in his last 20 innings on the bump — but remember the sample size.
I’m not mitigating Clevinger’s performance, but ask yourself one question: Do you feel comfortable with Clevinger starting Game 3 of the ALDS? Bottom line, he’s not what I would consider a “reliable” third starter heading down the stretch.
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Josh Tomlin’s stellar outing in Monday’s win over the Giants was also encouraging — but not enough to get over the inconsistency that plagues the back-end of the rotation.
With ace Corey Kluber likely pushed back a start due to neck soreness, Danny Salazar is set to return from the disabled list Saturday, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Despite his sharp outing at Triple-A Columbus last week, I’m not confident in Salazar’s ability to return at a high level.
If no move is made for Oakland Athletics ace Sonny Gray, it will be interesting to see who manager Terry Francona decides to bump from the rotation. Obviously, this is all pending Salazar’s performance.
If Salazar even somewhat resembles his 2016 first-half performance, it will be either Tomlin or Trevor Bauer who will lose their spot. Unfortunately, their numbers are quite comparable.
| Rk | Pos | Name | Age | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | FIP | WHIP | H9 | HR9 | BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SP | Josh Tomlin | 32 | 6 | 9 | 5.74 | 18 | 100.1 | 66 | 64 | 17 | 11 | 75 | 4.26 | 1.375 | 11.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 4 | SP | Trevor Bauer | 26 | 7 | 8 | 5.59 | 18 | 93.1 | 60 | 58 | 14 | 37 | 105 | 4.09 | 1.468 | 9.6 | 1.4 | 3.6 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
In an attempt to defend both starters this season, I’ve pointed out their adjustments throughout the year. For Tomlin, his abandoning the four-seam fastball failed to create consistency — while Bauer’s increased curveball usage yielded similar results.
Bauer, 26, has the electric stuff and young age. Tomlin, 32, is a craftsman who needs ultimate command to be effective. Disregard the age difference, it’s time for the Indians organization to move on from Bauer.
The eccentric-righty shows no signs of becoming the pitcher he should be. With Tomlin, Francona knows who he’s getting mentally every fifth day. Tomlin is the consummate professional.
But with Bauer, it’s the exact opposite. After an excellent June, Bauer has gone south — especially in his last four starts:
| Split | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | WHIP | SO9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 28 days | 1 | 3 | 5.79 | 4 | 18.2 | 23 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 1.607 | 7.7 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Now, it’s not to say Tomlin is lighting it up either. His dominant outing against the Giants highlights his own inconsistency. With Tomlin, he either has it, or he doesn’t — but his recent numbers are significantly better than Bauer’s.
| Split | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | WHIP | SO9 | SO/W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 28 days | 2 | 1 | 4.74 | 4 | 24.2 | 27 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 1.297 | 6.9 | 3.80 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
In spite of the Indians inability to pull-away in the AL Central, they will win the division. The central is too weak for a team with this much talent to fall short. Therefore, when viewing starters it’s important to consider their reliability in the Postseason.
Bauer struggled during the Tribe’s magical postseason run in 2016 — both on the mound and with his drone. Considering that caveat, Tomlin’s maturity and slightly superior consistency make the decision an easy one. Once again, this is all pending Salazar’s performance upon his return.
Next: 5 teams Indians are competing with for Gray
Hopefully, the Tribe makes a move for Gray — giving the Indians the reliable third starter they so desperately need.