Ohio State football: Understanding the first CFB Rankings

The first playoffs rankings are in for Ohio State. So what does that all mean?

Tuesday night brought us a Halloween treat in the first College Football Playoff rankings. There were certainly some surprises and some statements made by the committee. With Georgia and Alabama on a collision course at the top of the rankings, Ohio State lands at six.

What does the initial top 25 mean for the Buckeyes as the rest of the season unfolds? The Buckeyes are right where they should be.

I’m actively avoiding Buckeye Nation on social media right now because there will be all sorts of anger for Ohio State not being in the initial playoff field. Georgia and Alabama are a coin flip at the top.

Notre Dame’s only loss was a close one to the Bulldogs and they’ve beaten Michigan State, North Carolina State, and USC. Clemson beat Auburn, Virginia Tech, and Louisville, the latter two on the road. Oklahoma beat Ohio State in Columbus and their only loss is to fast rising Iowa State.

Ohio State’s loss to Oklahoma stings as their only significant non-conference game. Losing at home did not help and the committee is going to value those types of head to head matchups.

While I can readily admit this is a different Buckeye team than the second week of the season, a loss is a loss. With a nearly identical resume, the tie breaker there should go to Oklahoma.

How does Ohio State move up?

First, they have to win out and then beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. That will add quality wins over Michigan State, Michigan, and Wisconsin to the resume.

Second, they have to continue to show that the team that loss to Oklahoma might as well have been from a different school. The way the offense has improved will resonate with the committee if there needs to be another tie breaker in their deliberations.

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The Buckeyes also needs some help. Oklahoma still has to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, OK and then beat TCU at home. Clemson has to get past NC State on the road and win the ACC title game if they jump the Wolfpack in the ACC standings.

Even then, Miami or Virginia Tech would be looming as a potential Coastal Division champ. Notre Dame has to beat Miami on the road and Stanford in their season finale. There’s plenty of hurdles for the teams ahead of the Buckeyes in the rankings.

What will stop the Buckeyes from getting into the top four?

Any loss, even to Wisconsin with all of the help we just mentioned would keep Ohio State out. Wisconsin has a clear path to Indianapolis, IN. If Ohio State doesn’t get past Michigan or Michigan State, that’s the ball game.

If the Badgers trip up the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game, the Badgers will jump Ohio State no matter what. It’s nearly impossible to make the final four with two losses.

That said, there could be great runs by the current top four. Alabama is that good, even with three more ranked opponents left on the schedule and a fourth in the SEC Championship game.

Georgia is relatively safe as long as the Crimson Tide don’t blow them out in the SEC title game. Miami has so many close calls that Notre Dame is favored there. Clemson and Oklahoma would strengthen their resumes greatly by winning out.

There’s also one crazy scenario that could throw a wrench in the works. What if Miami wins out? They would beat Virginia Tech and Notre Dame in this hypothetical. They would beat Clemson or NC State in the ACC title game.

While Miami sits at #10 right now, the potential chaos in the Big 12 could help Miami jump past the teams in front of them now. There’s a lot to like about the Hurricanes path to the top four.

Where do the Buckeyes end up?

Right now, it’s hard to see a scenario where Ohio State jumps up to the top four without help. Clemson is the most at risk with an injury to quarterback Kelly Bryant, but they are a complete team.

The Fighting Irish can run the ball with the best of them and will be favored the rest of the way. If they beat Miami, that could seal the deal for them. We already mentioned that Alabama and Georgia will be a coin flip barring some kind of blowout, but that’s very unlikely and the committee always loves the SEC.

Ohio State should win out and will be able to get past Wisconsin. The Badgers passing game just doesn’t scare me enough to say Jonathan Taylor will be more successful than Saquon Barkley against the Buckeyes’ defensive front.

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The odds just aren’t in favor of Ohio State jumping the teams in front of them. The schedules for the top five teams will strengthen their respective resumes if those teams win the games they are supposed to win. That would leave a 12-1 Buckeye team on the outside looking in.

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