Cleveland Indians: Analytics says don’t chase Twins, play for 2020

The Cleveland Indians have been terribly unlucky in 2019, so should the Tribe bank on analytics that they’ll be better in 2020?

If you’re in the camp who believes analytics has taken the fun out of Major League Baseball, then. you’ll really hate what your about to read when it comes to the future of the Cleveland Indians.

In baseball, there’s a formula for measuring “things going right,” according to Cleveland.com columnist Terry Pluto. Based off this measurement, the numbers are telling the Indians to not necessarily blow things up, but to play for 2020, rather than trying to catch the Twins.

“Things going right” takes into account players performing above their normal level, in addition to teams that haven’t been ravaged by injuries. If you get a 100 percent grade, then basically EVERYTHING has gone right for your club.

An anonymous baseball executive told Pluto that the Twins are at a 95 percent clip when it comes to “Things going right,” while the Indians are down near 20 percent. Keep in mind, 50 percent is average.

The Twins were not the unanimous pick to win the division this year, yet they’ve mashed their way to the top of the standings with a rotation that’s also been better than advertised in Spring Training.

Pluto concludes that the “things going right” stat will level out for both the Twins and the Indians in 2020.

"“The odds are overwhelmingly against the Twins having a repeat of this season in 2020. The same for the Indians…That makes the Indians believe they they can contend for a Central Division title in 2020 if they make some correct moves this season.”"

Pluto took this foray into analytics to highlight why the Indians shouldn’t move attractive trade commodities such as Carlos Santana, Brad hand, Trevor Bauer and Francisco Lindor.

"“It’s doubtful they will deal most of those players by the July 31 deadline,” Pluto wrote."

I disagree with Pluto, and contend half those players will be traded. Santana and Lindor will be Indians next season, but Bauer and Hand have to be dealt.

Bauer can be a free agent after the 2020 season, so the Indians need to get something in return. Hopefully he can pitch well leading up to the trade deadline so that his stock takes a jump.

Meanwhile, Hand’s stock is never going to be higher, and the fact that you can significantly upgrade the future of your team at two or three positions by dealing a guy who plays one inning every other day is too good to pass up.

Plus, you’ve got to consider the volatility of relievers, as ESPN’s Buster Olney cited as the reason the Indians will deal Hand. 

Despite the offense showing some signs of life, the Tribe is just 35-33 heading into June 15, 11.0 games behind the Twins in the Central. They’re a 1.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot.

Texas, Boston, Oakland, Chicago and even the Angels are all within striking distance of the second Wild Card spot, so if the Indians are going to land in the postseason, they’re going to need things to start going right, immediately.

Imagine you’re Chris Antonetti. How would you play out the year. Stay the course and hope you get lucky, or play for 2020?