Cleveland Indians rumors: How much to extend Shane Bieber?

Is five years, $50 million a starting point for Cleveland Indians pitcher Shane Bieber?

The USS Francisco Lindor has sailed, as the Cleveland Indians could never figure out how to extend their four-time All-Star shortstop, an endeavor they’ve been exploring since after the 2016 World Series.

Now, Tribe head honchos Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff must turn their attention to Shane Bieber, their latest pitcher to win the AL’s Cy Young Award.

A potential Bieber extension is getting a lot of play in the media ever since Bieber took home the hardware.

The time is now for the Indians to get a deal done, because if they wait much longer, Bieber may end up slipping through the cracks like Lindor did. The Indians tried to extend Bieber before the start of the 2020 season, but the pandemic put a wrench into everyone’s plans, according to The Athletic’s Jason Lloyd (subscription).

Now, there should an enormous sense of urgency to get a deal done because Bieber is currently the hottest commodity in baseball. He becomes arbitration eligible after next season.

So, what will it take to keep him in Cleveland through his prime?  Lloyd thinks the starting point will be around $50 million, based off the deal Blake Snell signed with the Rays in 2019.

"“Snell signed a five-year, $50 million deal with the Rays at this same career point in 2019, one year prior to arbitration. Snell, like Bieber, had a Cy Young in his pocket when he signed the deal. Bieber likely would be looking for more, but it’s at least a baseline. Bieber has 64 career starts. Here are the numbers for Snell, Bieber and Lincecum through the first 64 starts of their careers.”"

Why would Bieber sign? The argument could be made that he didn’t come through the minors with a silver spoon. Remember, Lindor was a first-round pick who picked up a lucrative New Balance contract shortly after his MLB career commenced. Armed with a signing bonus in the millions, in addition to a shoe deal, he could make the gamble on himself.

Bieber was a fourth-round pick, so there was no million-dollar signing bonus for the UCSB product. His bonus was for about $420,000. He’s made about $1 million in his MLB career. He won’t hit free agency until after the 2024 season, when he’ll be 29. With this in mind, the Indians should be looking to buy out his first year of free agency, which means they’ll have until he’s 30.

As Lloyd noted, if the Indians can’t do this, they’ll go through the same dilemma with Bieber as they’re gone through with Lindor.

If the Indians can’t find common ground with their ace, the trade rumors would likely ramp up after the 2022 campaign. You know the rhetoric by now. If the Indians did trade him then, Bieber’s new team would have him for two years before he hit free agency.