Browns: Matthew Stafford is the fools gold of quarterback upgrades

Cleveland media is pushing a narrative that Matthew Stafford is better than Baker Mayfield and that the Browns should consider “upgrading” to him.

The Cleveland media is really pushing a narrative that the Browns would be wise to consider upgrading to Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford in the offseason. This is nonsense to even consider for either man. For Ryan, it’s silly to consider him since he is going to be 36 and has only had two winning seasons since 2012. His numbers have declined hard over the last three years, plus he’s going to carry a big financial number. So why would the Browns attach themselves to an aging quarterback, who can’t win? Especially when everyone and their mother keeps talking about how the Browns can’t spend on defensive free agents because they need to save their money for guys like Nick Chubb and Wyatt Teller?

Going after Ryan makes zero sense. Then there’s the Stafford argument, which is the one that is more prevalent and is just as dumb of an idea.

Stafford is not a great quarterback, one could argue he may not even be very good; especially compared to Mayfield. In a matchup of career numbers, they’re not that different. Mayfield has a career completion percentage of 61.4, while Stafford has a career percentage of 62.5. Basically a wash.

Not counting 2010, due to injuries, in Stafford’s first 42 games, he has a record of 16-26. Mayfield is 20-20 through 40. Through those same 42 games, Stafford threw 53 interceptions. Mayfield, through 40, has thrown just 42. Yes, in 2011, Stafford chucked 42 touchdowns, but he threw 39% of them to Calvin Johnson. Even at their peak, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry aren’t on Johnson’s level.

Since Johnson retired, Stafford is 31-35 as a starter and hasn’t thrown more than 29 touchdowns since. Mayfield’s best was 27. Now you’ll say “BUT CHAD, STAFFORD HAS THROWN FOR 4,000 YARDS SEVEN TIMES!” and to that, I’d say, that stat lies.

Yes, if you look at Stafford’s stat page, it says he’s thrown for 5,000 yards and 4,000 yards in a season multiple times. Do you know what he hasn’t had in his entire career?  A real running game. Only one time in Stafford’s career has he had a running back with over 1,000 yards in a season and that was Reggie Bush in 2013. Bush had 1,006 yards rushing. That’s it. His numbers aren’t good, they’re bloated because that’s the only way they’ve ever had to move the ball. Just look at where the Lions ranked in rushing yards per season since Stafford’s debut;

"2009 – 27th2010 – 23rd2011 – 29th2012 – 23rd2013 – 17th2014 – 28th2015 – 32nd2016 – 30th2017 – 32nd2018 – 23rd2019 – 21st2020 – 28th"

For context, the Browns were 14th in 2018, 12th in 2019, and are first in 2020 in total rushing yards.

The Lions have never had a rushing attack worth worrying about. So of course Stafford’s numbers were bloated.  His career quarterback rating is 89.6, while Mayfield’s is 87.3. You’re really going to advocate for Stafford when he’s literally Mayfield? Only seven years older, and has a losing record?

Now, you’ll argue that “Stafford hasn’t had any help!” and to which I’d argue, yeah, he has. Also, you can’t use that as an argument for Stafford, and not apply it to Mayfield as well. The same issues that Stafford has had, coaching turnover, incompetent front offices, etc., Mayfield has dealt with as well, only in a far more truncated time period.

Stafford and Mayfield are at worse, the same quarterbacks. Mayfield is just more affordable, has a higher ceiling, and has a great rapport with the team he’s on. Going from Mayfield to Stafford isn’t an upgrade and heck, it’s not even a lateral move.

They’re having near-identical 2020s. The only difference is that Stafford is a 12-year pro, who’s playing his third season in the offense’s system, while Mayfield is only a third-year pro, who’s only three-quarters of a season into the third new system of his career.

Stafford through 11 games in 2020 has 2,876 yards passing, with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while completing 63.2% of his passes. Mayfield through 11 games has 2,108 yards passing, with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while completing 61.2% of his passes.

The Lions have rushed for 1,063 yards as a team, while the Browns have rushed for 1,775. A number that would be much higher if Nick Chubb hadn’t missed four games. Oh, and Stafford plays in a dome. Imagine if Mayfield didn’t have to worry about poor weather conditions. What would his numbers look like then?

All in all, it’s fair to say that Stafford is a downgrade from Mayfield, as both men have similar numbers but Mayfield is younger and has a higher upside. It’s also fair to say that Stafford really does kill the notion that an “elite” level quarterback is needed to win the Super Bowl. Either, Stafford has been as average as he was due to the talent around him; which means a good/great quarterback can’t win on his own. Or, if you think great quarterbacks should be able to rise above those things and find ways to win, then Stafford has shown time and time again he isn’t good/great.

Either way, it means Stafford has no business being in Cleveland over Mayfield.