Cavs: Cade Cunningham could be a problem for Collin Sexton

If the Cavs draft Cade Cunningham, Collin Sexton may be the one who pays.

The Cavs are a team of two halves. On one hand, they have some solid talent that if used properly could be very viable. They’re also a team that in their current focus and set up are poorly constructed. For instance, Cedi Osman is a point-forward who’s being asked to be a perimeter three. Isaac Okoro is a defensive-first, undersized small forward, who’s being asked to guard the best opposing player and shoot threes. Collin Sexton is the primary scorer when at best he’s the number two option behind a better player. That better player may be Cade Cunningham, who may spell big trouble for Sexton.

Chris Fedor is reporting that the Cavs are very high on the Oklahoma State prospect, and if the Cavs draft him, he’ll likely start at small forward. That means that Okoro could go down to the shooting guard spot in the starting rotation, a spot he much better fits. So what happens to Sexton? You’re not going to have him run the point, you’d either have Osman or Darius Garland handle the distribution. That is if both are still on the team come October.

That means Sexton moves to the bench, as the sixth man, a position he’s better suited for as he’s more Lou Williams than he is a Kyrie Irving-type. Sexton takes a lot of shots, but he very rarely shoots three’s and in today’s NBA, that just doesn’t work. Now, some people view a spot on the bench as an insult, and it’s not. You can’t play 82 games, plus the playoffs, with your starters going 48 minutes every night. You need fresh legs, and the Cavs need someone off the bench who can put up big numbers. A Manu Ginobili type, only in Sexton’s case, an off-brand version of the Argentinian/Italian legend.

So what would Cade Cunningham mean for Collin Sexton?

This is where things get complicated. We’re at about the peak of Sexton’s game. His per-game’s will only go down from here. The more talent this team has, the less likely Sexton will be around 25 points per game. With Garland improving, Osman returning to form late in the season, Okoro developing as an interior scorer, and the need to improve the roster around them, the odds that Sexton averages 19 field-goal attempts next year is low. That also means he won’t be averaging nearly six free-throw attempts either, if he’s not driving to the basket as often, he won’t be fouled as often. Plus he refuses to shoot three’s with any regularity.

So his stats will take a hit.

Then we have to ask ourselves, with Sexton in the fourth year of his contract and nearing the end of his deal, what is he worth? Is he a $30 million kinda player? It sure doesn’t seem that way. Sexton’s a good inside scorer, but he isn’t much else. He’s a defensive liability, he doesn’t distribute the ball that often and has a terrible inability to shoot from three consistently (76% of his shots are from inside the arc).

That doesn’t sound like a player who’s worth big money. His advanced metrics are terrible, and he doesn’t play well next to Garland, who himself has started to open people’s eyes. He’s improved tremendously since his rookie year, and if the team had to pick, the decision should be Garland. Garland is a better overall player already compared to Sexton, and while Sexton has better scoring figures to the naked eye, according to their RAPTOR ratings, Sexton is only at a +.04, while Garland is at a +.01. Not too far off from one another.

Sexton’s offensive RAPTOR score is actually down dramatically from his 2019-2020 season, where he had a score of +1.3.

Again, his points per game are up, but his overall offensive efficiency is down.

If the Cavs do go and get Cunningham or any other guard/forward in the upcoming draft, that may be it on Sexton’s days as a starter for the Cavs.