Browns: 5 undeniable awful truths after the first five games

Kevin Stefanski is a good coach with limitations

This one was obvious last year but we all held off because “he’s a rookie head coach”.  That excuse is dead. To be clear, this isn’t the first game Kevin Stefanski accidentally tried to shoot himself. It’s just the first game that he actually did shoot himself in the foot. It all starts with his fetish for analytical decisions, which is a half-measure at best.

Take for instance the fourth-down conversion to Odell Beckham. Baker Mayfield hit him right in his hands and Beckham drops it. That’s not Stefanski’s fault, right?! Beckham dropped the pass, it would’ve worked, so it’s not Stefanski’s fault, right? Wrong. Why is it Stefanski’s fault? Simple, he clearly never incorporated the fact that Beckham often leads the league in dropped, catchable, passes among receivers. He had a drop rate of 9.5 in 2019, the same season he lead the league in dropped catchable passes. For someone who lives and breaths with advanced data, wouldn’t you think he’d be smart enough to go with guys on that play who don’t drop easy passes?

Beckham’s reputation is well known to the laymen, so why did Stefanski have him on the field when a crucial catch needed to be made? Why was it not Rashard Higgins running that route? A guy who rarely drops anything?

Secondly, Stefanski needs to start taking the points. You could’ve negated the fourth-down conversion-Beckham-drop and just kicked the field goal. Chase McLaughlin has not missed all year, and you were looking at what, a 30-yard chip-shot at best? Barely more than a modern extra point. Guess what happens if you hit that chip shot? You’re up by four when the Chargers get the ball last and they are now forced to score a touchdown. The entire game takes on a whole new perspective at that moment. The team gets to play all out, and who knows, maybe the defense holds knowing they won’t lose to a field goal.

Thirdly, he has got to stop thinking that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are anywhere close to being the same type of runner or the same quality of runner. If you’re in a crucial possession, unless Chubb is gassed or hurt, he needs to be on the field. Hunt is his backup, not his equal.

For a point of emphasis, here’s how much slower Hunt is than Chubb off the handoff. Chubb gains roughly 3.8 (we’ll say 4.0) yards per rush before contact. He’s already moved four yards before he’s touched. Hunt is at 3.0. For proper context, Chubb is second in the league only behind Derrick Henry. Hunt is 24th.

The team has an elite running back, and a guy who might be a starter on the bottom eight teams in the league. They are not the same. Moreover, Hunt is only 15th in the league in total receiving yards per game for a running back (remember, this is what he was brought in for), 21st in the league in targets per game for running backs, and 17th in the league in receiving yards per game for running backs.

It’s time to stop going to him in the passing game because he’s not making moves. He’s really not a threat except in screenplays, which defenses are now sniffing out right now. It also brings up a question about why Demetric Felton isn’t getting more reps in passing situations? He’s a receiver/running back hybrid? Maybe he’s a sixth-round pick for a reason and speed aside, isn’t able to play, but until we see for sure, we don’t know.