The Cavs are projected to win a crazy amount of games this season

The Cavs are apparently a near-lock for the post-season.

Call it skepticism or just good old-fashioned pessimism, but I’m hesitant to get on the “Cavs are back” bandwagon. I’m not saying that they’re not, nor am I say saying I hope they’re not. I’m saying that I can’t allow myself to believe that they are. Not yet. Things can still go sideways. They’re much improved, they’re on their way but if I buy in now and they fall apart, that will hurt like a son-of-a-gun.

If you’re inclined to believe the play is real, however, there are signs to support you. Namely that they’re 14-12, currently 7th in the Eastern Conference playoff race, and oh yeah, have had the toughest schedule so far through the NBA’s first 26 games. While the rest of the season isn’t all of a sudden going to turn into some easy cakewalk, it bolds well for the Cavaliers that they’ve gone through arguably their toughest patch of the season and came out of it with a winning record.

Still, Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report has the Cavs at a 92.3% chance of making the playoffs (third-best in the East) and the highest odds to win the NBA Finals at 4.4%. The Warriors, Jazz, and Suns are the only teams with higher odds.

The Cavs seasons may turn into something very special

If that wasn’t all, the good folks at Basketball Reference also have the Cavs finishing in third in the conference with a whopping 47.7 wins. The “.7” is due to the fact they ran 10,000 simulations, so sometimes you’re going to have some remainders. Still, winning anywhere from 47-48 games this season? I don’t think many people would be too upset at the notion.

This isn’t surprising at all, not when you look at the fact that while the Cavs are just 20th out of 30 for offense, they’re also 4th out of 30 for defense. Clearly, this is a team that knows how to win and win they do.

After the last three seasons of utter trash play, this is a great reprieve. Certainly, the idea that they can be a playoff team exists. Winning nearly 50 games is also a possibility but I thought they were “back” last season, after the start they had.

So I’m going to wait until the All-Star game break before declaring them back.