There’s only a slim chance the Cavaliers miss the playoffs

Despite recent struggles, the Cleveland Cavaliers are unlikely to miss the playoffs.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 5-5 in their last 10 and their defense is in shambles without Jarrett Allen to anchor the team. Evan Mobley has filled in for Allen’s role remarkably well, but the team wasn’t built on Allen’s defense alone, but his ability to play with Mobley. With Mobley moving over to play in Allen’s spot, there was no one to fill in for Mobley. That lack of defensive prowess has impacted the Cavs significantly.

The team is currently sixth in the Eastern Conference standings, with a tie-breaker over the surging Toronto Raptors, but also just one game back from the crumbling Chicago Bulls. While it looks bad at the moment, the Cavs are nearly guaranteed a spot in the playoffs regardless of the season.

And for clarity’s sake, I do consider the play-in part of the playoffs. The Cavaliers are 4.5 up on the Atlanta Hawks, who sit in the 10th seed, which is the lowest spot a team can be to qualify for the play-in tournament.

The Knicks are 11th, at 32-42, and are 9.5 back of the Cavs. The Cavs have nine to play, the Knicks have 10 to play. All the Cavs have to do to clinch a spot in the play-in at least is win one more game, and hope the Knicks lose one more game. While that won’t eliminate the Knicks from contention, it will protect the Cavaliers and make sure they’re at least the 10th seed regardless of anything else, as mathematically, the Knicks would be unable to achieve a better record than the Cavs at that point.

It’d be a disappointment to fall into the play-in but still a massive improvement

No one wants the Cleveland Cavaliers in the play-in tournament, not with the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets waiting for whoever but even if they fell into it, that’d still be an achievement. This was a team who a year ago fans were mad at because Jarrett Allen thought the team was three years away from a playoff birth at a low seed.

Not a year later, the Cavs are just 5.5 games out of first in the Eastern Conference. That’s an impressive turnaround. While the home-court advantage is unlikely without a healthy Allen, the Cavs should likely win out most of the games on their schedule and in doing so, would help keep them out of the play-in games.

They have Chicago later on Saturday, then the Orlando Magic, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, the Magic again, the Brooklyn Nets, and the Milwaukee Bucks.

If Allen misses all those games, it’s very likely the Cavs go 6-3 or 5-4, with likely wins over the Bulls, Magic (2x), Mavericks, Hawks, and Knicks. Though the Mavericks are playing very good ball at the moment, so who knows.

If Allen is able to return it’s very possible the Cavs are able to hang and beat just about every team on that list. The Nets are vulnerable and Milwaukee isn’t unstoppable. The only team that has given the Cavs real fits this year are the 76ers, who are 3-0 against Cleveland so far.

In an encouraging sign, the Cavs lost by 10 in their first meeting, six in their second, and then by four in overtime in their third. So they’re playing them better.

The Cavs are 2-1 against the Bucks and 1-2 against the Nets; so wins over them aren’t as foreign of a concept as a win over Philadelphia.

That is, of course, with Allen back in the lineup.