Cleveland Guardians should be better than 77 projected PECOTA wins

Optimism would be the way to describe my attitude to the Cleveland Guardians. It was the same way with the Cleveland Indians. If you don’t have hope, what have you got?

With that in mind, I felt a little better after reading Cleveland.com’s Terry Pluto ask himself if the Guardians are going to be as bad as everyone thinks. “Finally,” I thought. “Maybe “I’m not crazy.”

Baseball Prospectus publishes its PECOTA rankings and the Guardians are projected at 77.3 victories. It’s got to be my red and blue glasses, but I always think these numbers are low.

The Guardians, more or less, are bringing back the same team from 2021, when the club won 80 games. It also seems to be forgotten that Cleveland flirted with a .500 record despite missing its three best starting pitchers for good chunks of the season.

Shane Bieber had a shoulder injury that limited him to 16 starts. He didn’t pitch from June 14 through Sept. 24. He says he’s healthy now.

Aaron Civale was limited to 21 starts. At the time he went on the Injured List with a sprained finger, he led MLB with 10 wins.

Then, there was Zach Plesac, who broke his thumb taking off his shirt. You didn’t forget that one, did you?

Digging out of the injury rubble was a ray of light named Cal Quantrill. Quantrill was one of the games best pitchers in the second half of the season. If he stays on point, the Guards top four are going to be dangerous.

Heck, I didn’t even mention Triston Mckenzie. He’s still just 24 and seemed to make improvements throughout the year. If he’s your fifth starter, with the ceiling he possesses, you’re in great shape.

It’s easy to get down on the Guardians because they didn’t do anything to bolster their offense.

As for the bullpen, closer Emmanuel Close is still there and Bryan Shaw recently signed a new contract. The group will have some kinks to work out, but I think Terry Francona can find the arms necessary to make it work.

Cleveland Guardians offense

That said, Cleveland didn’t acquire center fielder Myles Straw until the trade deadline. Also, Josh Naylor looks to have recovered from that gruesome ankle injury suffered when he ran into Ernie Clement.

Naylor may not have a HOF trajectory, but he’s a good everyday MLB player.

Having Naylor gives the Guardians four bonafide big-league players at the top of the lineup in Straw, Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes. If one of their young prospects can get things rolling, you’ll feel a lot better about the lineup.

Also worth nothing, a Terry Francona-led Cleveland team has never finished with below 80 wins. In fact, last season marked the only time Tito’s Cleveland squad finished below .500 and Francona left the dugout for the final two months of the season to deal with health problems.

Is this a team that will win 90 wish games and win the title? My brain tells me “No,” but they should be better than 76 victories.