5 reasons the Cleveland Browns will have to trade Baker Mayfield before the season
By Chad Porto
Historical precedent says the Browns won’t get a compensatory pick
The whole “just wait until he signs elsewhere in 2023 and the Browns get a 3rd round pick” crowd is not going to like this part. If the Browns keep Mayfield, and he goes into free agency in 2023 having not played a single snap of the football in 2022, the Browns aren’t getting a third-round pick for Mayfield.
They’re probably not getting a sixth or seventh-round pick either.
See, compensatory picks don’t work like that. The NFL only gives out so many per year, and a player has to meet certain requirements for a team to get anything. The amount he played in the year before, his contract with his new team, how he ranks and fairs in comparison to other contracts of players in similar situations, etc all matter here.
It’s a mathematical formula. One that is extremely complicated. So basically if you were just in the crowd that said “just wait for the third!”, well you’ll be waiting forever, because not only would Mayfield not get the Browns a third-round pick in 2023 when he eventually signs elsewhere, the Browns may not get a single pick at all.
Not a third, or a fourth, or a fifth, or a sixth, or a seventh. The Browns are likely to get zero compensation for Mayfield, and there are historical precedents for that: Jamies Winston.
In 2019 Winston threw for 5,000+ yards, 30 touchdowns, and went 7-9 for Tampa Bay. He signed for one year, at $1.1 million with the Saints for the 2020 season. In return, the Buccaneers got nothing for him. Mayfield hasn’t played healthy since 2020. If he doesn’t play a single down for the Browns in 2022, that’s two years of no/unreliable tape on him, so there’s no reason to think he’d sign a huge deal in 2023. If that’s the case, there’s zero chance the Browns get anything for him. Winston played in 2019, Mayfield is looking like he won’t in 2022
Mayfield, as of right now, is nothing but a sunk cost. The Browns would be lucky to get that deal with the Panthers, where they were willing to eat $5 million on his deal. That isn’t going to be happening again. Not with how little leverage the Browns have.