New 2023 ZiPS Projections paint bleak outlook for Cleveland Guardians offense in 2023

The Cleveland Guardians’ offense is looking bleak according to Fangraphs.

The good folks at Fangraphs don’t seem to think the Cleveland Guardians’ offense is going to be much improved in 2023. Their yearly ZiPS Projections show they expect the Guards to be in about the same place offensively as they were in 2023, with limited home runs. This is a club that needs two if not three 30 home runs per year kind of guys to succeed in the postseason.

This year, ZiPS is predicting just one 30-home-run guy in Jose Ramirez, and a 20-home-run guy in Oscar Gonzalez. The additions of Mike Zunino and Josh Bell were supposed to elevate the offense and its power output, but the projections have Zunino with just 18 home runs and 40 RBI (but only 100 strikeouts) and Bell has 16 home runs and 67 RBIs.

Nothing to shake a stick at but if these projections are anywhere close to being on the mark, then the club will once again struggle with getting runs on the board quickly.

Now there is an upside here, they predict that Zunino will split a lot of time with Bo Naylor, and that may help make this projection not seem so doom and gloom. If Zunino does get more time, maybe he can have a much better power output.

These are just estimated projections and anything can still happen

The ZiPS are not a crystal ball, and while they’re pretty good at establishing a baseline of expectation, they aren’t accurate all that often. They’re close enough though to show you what you may want to worry about, each and every year, players and teams defy expectations.

The Guardians are living embodiments of that. They had an entire 2022 lineup of guys that defied expectations. Why go into 2023 expecting anything different? Sure, a guy like Zunino is going to strike out a lot, but if his power is there, he’ll be able to contribute to the offense regardless.

As for Bell, I fully expect him to be closer to his former All-Star form in such a pleasant park for hitters like Progressive Field than he was in the abyss of wasted space that is the beautiful looking, but terrible to play in Petco Park in San Diego.