Does Josh Bell really have a history of slow starts or should the Cleveland Guardians worry already?

Josh Bell has been very bad for the Cleveland Guardians but is a turnaround really coming?

When it comes to Josh Bell’s incredibly brief time with the Cleveland Guardians, two things have been said a lot already. The first is that he’s playing very badly, which he is. The second is that we’re not to worry, as he supposedly “turns it on” after having a slow start. Generally speaking, that’s a lot of Terry Francona’s teams in Cleveland historically.

They don’t always put it all together until June or July usually. So is that the case for Bell?

Looking at some of the numbers, that may seem to indicate that. After looking through his stats, I found that in 2017, 2018, and 2021, his average and output increased starting June 1. Yet, in 2019 and 2022, his batting average dipped after May 31, and hard. Below you can see how things break down from the start of the season to May 31, and from June 1 on until the end of the year.

"2017April-May: 39-176 (.221), 9 doubles, 9 home runs, 21 RBIs, 20 walks, 41KsRest of the season: 101-373 (.270), 17 doubles, 17 home runs, 69 RBIs, 46 walks, 76 Ks2018March-May: 52-203 (.256), 11 doubles, 4 Home Runs, 31 RBI, 23 Walks, 44KsRest of the Season: 79-304 (.260), 20 doubles, 8 home runs, 31 RBIs, 54 Walks, 33 Ks2019March-May: 74-216 (.343), 20 Doubles, 18 Home Runs, 51 RBIs, 22 Walks, 46 KsRest of the Season: 72-311 (.232), 17 doubles, 19 home runs, 64 RBIs, 52 Walks, 72 Ks2021March-May: 29-140 (.207), 6 Doubles, 7 Home Runs, 22 RBIs, 11 Walks, 39 KsRest of the Season: 118-358 (.330), 18 Doubles, 20 Home Runs, 66 RBIs, 54, 62 Ks2022March-May: 54-176 (.307), 6 doubles, 4 Home runs, 28 RBIs, 21 Walks, 13 KsRest of Season: 93-375 (.248), 14 doubles, 13 Home Runs,  43 RBIS, 60 Walks, 89 ks"

For full disclosure, we didn’t look at his first year in 2016, nor did we look at 2020 due to a lack of games played.

In his first year, he clearly out-paced himself, and even though he had better stats after June 1 usually, his average usually dipped, and his rate of stats wasn’t always on par or better than the rate in the first two months.

In fact, for his career, he’s routinely been a better hitter in his first two months than his last four.

From March to May, this is what his numbers looked like for his career; 248-911 (.272), 52 doubles, 42 home runs, 150 RBIs, 97 Walks, 183 Ks.

From June to October, this is what his numbers look like. 528-2,077 (.254), 106 doubles, 88 home runs, 321 RBIs, 318 Walks, 450 strikeouts. Clearly, he’s not the second-half phenom that so many claims he is. While he’s clearly scoring more runs and hitting more RBIs, he’s not doing it at the same rate.

In fact, when looking closely at his numbers, only once, in 2017, did he actually find a second gear come June.  In 2018 he only had a .004-point swing to his batting average. That’s pretty minor. He does have a .020 swing when it comes to his power numbers. Before June he was hitting doubles and home runs at a .380 clip, while after, he’s hitting them at a .360 clip. A far more obvious swing.

Bell historically does his best work in the first few months of the season, so it’s fair to be concerned about him going forward. Does that mean we give up on Bell? No, not yet, he has plenty of time to turn things around.

But after his dower year in 2022 and the fact that he isn’t actually a better player as the season goes on, fans should keep their expectations in check.