It was pointless for the Cleveland Browns to draft a quarterback after the 2nd round in the 2023 NFL Draft
By Chad Porto
What does this mean for the Cleveland Browns and Dorian Thompson-Robinson
The numbers don’t lie, the Browns didn’t draft some super prospect in Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The odds that Thompson-Robinson becomes a genuine standout player for the Browns aren’t high. In 53 seasons, only one quarterback, Brunell, ever found success after being taken in the fifth round.
Andrew Berry doesn’t have the best track record of taking first-rounders, and now everyone thinks this rookie is going to do something no one else has done in 30 years. What data do you have to support this? Quarterbacks don’t transition well to the NFL. It’s a super important position with very few actually good players to fill it.
Historically, it’s probably the position with the highest rate of failure. That’s not just with later-round picks either, there’s a reason why starting-caliber quarterbacks can play 10, 15, or 20 years and not worry about being replaced. There aren’t many “great” quarterbacks out there. Maybe anywhere from 5-10 really, truly great quarterbacks at a time. That’s usually it. It’s why it’s among the highest turnover positions in the NFL.
And why it has the highest failure rate too.
Over the last 10 years, only four quarterbacks out of 83 have become “franchise guys” after being drafted in the second round or later, and three of those guys were second-round picks.
That means from the third round to the seventh round, one player, Dak Prescott, has been the only NFL Pro Bowl-caliber player. Meaning that it’s far likelier that Thompson-Robinson is out of the NFL in two years than it is if he’s a Pro Bowl-caliber or even a regular starter.
If teams know that running backs and middle linebackers aren’t worth picks in the first round or so, and that punters, kickers, and long-snappers are better left for undrafted free agents; why do NFL teams continue to fall for the lie that a franchise quarterback can be found after the second round?
And if you’re not drafting Thompson-Robinson to be an eventual starter, why draft him at all with three quarterbacks already on your roster?