3 concerns for the Cleveland Guardians that may not go away

May 16, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (57) reacts after being relieved during the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
May 16, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (57) reacts after being relieved during the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports /
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GOODYEAR, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 23: Shane Bieber #57 of the Cleveland Guardians poses for a photo during media day at Goodyear Ballpark on February 23, 2023 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
GOODYEAR, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 23: Shane Bieber #57 of the Cleveland Guardians poses for a photo during media day at Goodyear Ballpark on February 23, 2023 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /

Shane Bieber is done as an elite pitcher

Shane Bieber is seemingly done as an elite pitcher, and that doesn’t seem like something that can be fixed. As of May 18, 2023, Shane Bieber is posting his lowest SO9 (strikeouts per nine innings) of his career at just 6.9 per game. Last year he was at 8.9. In 2021, he was at 12.5, while in 2022 he was at 14.2. There are many explanations for why he dropped off for four straight years but one sticks out the most.

His fastball has died, coincidentally, after the 2021 banning of various substances that pitchers were allowed to use. Did Bieber doctor balls? No idea, but in 2020 he was throwing a 94-mile-per-hour fastball. After the first round of banned substances, it fell to 92.8, after another round it fell to 91.3, and now, at just 27 years old, Bieber is throwing it just over 91 miles per hour.

It’s not just his fastball that’s fallen off, but his cutter has gotten noticeably slower as well. This is a  problem, as those two pitches make up 56.3% of balls thrown by Bieber according to Baseball Savant.

To complicate matters even more, his slider is no longer finding the strike zone. Meaning if you just sit on his curveball, he’s likely to walk you.

What’s even more damaging to Bieber’s current reputation is that at the height of his powers in 2020, Beiber had some of the best vertical movement on his pitches in the league. His curveball rose at 5.7 inches above average, his slider by 4.5 IAA, his fastball at 2.5,  his cutter at 1.5, and his changeup at 0.8.

Now, in 2023, Bieber’s curveball is just at 2.5, his slider is at -0.5, his fastball is at 1.0, and his changeup is at -1.4. Only his cutter, 1.6, has risen since 2020. It may hurt fans to hear this, but it may be time to consider cashing out on Bieber before the rest of the league realizes, for whatever reason, that he’s cooked as an Ace.