Aaron Rodgers' Arrival Complicates Browns' Chances in the AFC North

The stakes just got higher in the AFC North.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) against the Cleveland Browns during their football game on Saturday December 25, 2021, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.

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Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) against the Cleveland Browns during their football game on Saturday December 25, 2021, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Mjs Apc Green Bay Packers Vs Browns 22169 122521wag | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

The will-he-won’t-he anticipation is finally at an end now that Aaron Rodgers has signed a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers to be their quarterback for the 2025 NFL season. Finding himself in the highly competitive AFC North Division, Rodgers has biannual face-offs to look forward to against the Ravens, Bengals, and, of course, the Browns.

Rodgers’ addition to this crowded equation has sent shockwaves across the division as rivals reassess this season’s prospects. For the Browns in particular, Rodgers’ sudden appearance on their schedule has enormous ramifications. 

The now 41-year-old Rodgers spent the first eighteen years of his lengthy career in Green Bay, first as a backup behind Brett Favre before becoming their franchise QB. Rodgers led the Packers to a Super Bowl victory in 2010 and earned himself Super Bowl MVP honors in the process. He also boasts a whopping four regular-season MVP awards, the second most of any player aside from Peyton Manning. 

Rodgers’ long tenure in Green Bay wasn’t without its issues, especially clashes with coaches, which eventually boiled over into the headlines. Things reached their breaking point when the Packers drafted who many saw as Rodgers’ replacement in Jordan Love. After this, the writing was on the wall, and it was only a matter of time before the inevitable breakup unfolded.

When it finally did, Rodgers found himself as a member of the New York Jets in 2023. High hopes and Super Bowl dreams were heartbreakingly dashed in the first game of the season, though, when Rodgers ruptured his Achilles tendon in his first drive of the game. What followed next was a long recovery amid speculation that the future Hall-of-Famer might finally hang it up for good. Rodgers did in the end decide to come back for another season in New York, but in a generally unimpressive season, which saw his coach, Robert Saleh, kicked to the curb after Week 5.

Steelers' Aaron Rodgers Addition Complicates Browns Chances in the AFC North

Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Rodgers and the Steelers will play the Browns at home in Week 6 and then again in Cleveland in Week 17, which could very well serve as a win-and-you’re-in game for either team hoping for a Wild Card spot. With so much on the line in these matchups, the Browns are forced to take a hard look in the mirror.

Rodgers’ move to the division will factor heavily into the Browns’ ongoing quarterback competition. Not only does this eliminate one of the likeliest landing spots for Kenny Pickett, but it also changes their strategic game planning for their two matchups.

If the Browns choose to start Joe Flacco against Rodgers in Week 6, their combined age of 81 is at least noteworthy, if not record-setting. Matching Flacco against Rodgers in this meeting makes a lot of sense; both quarterbacks have a profound understanding of the game and know better than to make the mistakes of younger, less experienced players. As a result, this clash could be a chess match played with a combination of big arm throws and risk-averse hucks out of bounds.

Their second matchup, scheduled for Week 17, could prove to be one of the most interesting games of the season. In a tough division, expected to be carried by the Baltimore Ravens, the other three teams will be fighting against one another for a Wild Card route to the playoffs. This late-season match-up in Cleveland could prove to be the deciding factor in the Browns’ playoff aspirations.

The looming question, though, is which quarterback will the Browns choose to face Rodgers in this must-win game. Flacco could still be in the starting spot, but there’s an equally likely chance that Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders could have the job by then. If one of these rookies does get the nod, this rematch could play out very differently than their first meeting, pitting youthful athleticism against the poise of an experienced veteran.

In any case, though, if the Browns are still in the hunt this late in the season, this will be their make-or-break moment.

If there is one player on the Browns’ roster who actually welcomes Rodgers’ addition to the division, it's their star edge rusher, Myles Garrett. At his age, Rodgers isn’t exactly the most mobile of quarterbacks; something that will have Garrett licking his chops as he looks to take full advantage of his slow-moving prey. While he might not be fleet on his feet, Rodgers does have the wherewithal to usually get rid of the ball before taking the sack, but this doesn’t mean that Garrett can’t take his pound of flesh with relentless pressure and hard hits.

Sportsbooks seem unsure of how much Rodgers will actually move the needle in Pittsburgh. Since his signing became official, the team’s betting odds have barely fluctuated. For example, their Super Bowl odds have stayed at a fairly long +5000, and their odds to win the AFC are only at +2000, which shows that bettors seem hesitant to risk their dough on this experiment unfolding in the Steel City.

One line that has changed since Rodgers’ move became official is Pittsburgh’s odds to win the AFC North Division, which slightly increased from +550 to +500. Similarly, their chances of making the playoffs were nudged up from +150 to +140 even if their win total has stayed at a modest 8.5.

This season, the AFC North matchups are going to be must-see football, especially when the Browns and Steelers face each other. The importance of these high-stakes games for Cleveland can not be understated in their mission to prove the world wrong.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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