After some careful number crunching, sportsbooks have begun taking bets on NFL teams’ projected win totals. It will come as no surprise that the list is topped by the reigning Super Bowl champs, the Philadelphia Eagles, with other powerhouses like the Chiefs, Lions, and Ravens not far behind. Scroll down that list to the very bottom, below the Steelers who still don’t have a quarterback and even below the pitiful Titans, and you’ll find the Cleveland Browns.
Not all sportsbooks offer the same exact odds when it comes to teams’ over-under line, but they seem to unanimously agree that the Browns are going to have the hardest time of any team when it comes to manufacturing wins next year.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Browns at the bottom of the barrel and is currently setting their over-under at 3.5 wins, and DraftKings Sportsbook is starting the conversation at a measly 2.5 wins. Bet365 seems to be the most optimistic about the Brown’s future, but is still taking bets at 4.5 wins
To be fair, not all of this pessimism and doubt is unwarranted. Last year’s three-win season isn’t much to inspire potential bettors, and the franchise’s unfortunate history overall is enough to turn many bettors elsewhere.
This offseason hasn’t helped move the needle much either. After losing Deshaun Watson to injury, the Browns are now in the middle of a four-way quarterback controversy that leaves their offensive capabilities uncertain at best. On the defensive side of the ball, Cleveland rests their season’s hopes on the broad shoulders of Myles Garrett, but besides this one weapon in their arsenal, there isn’t much to boast about.
The icing on the cake, and something that surely helps keep the Browns’ projected win total abysmally low, is the fact that they are set to face the second-most challenging schedule in the entire league.
Hope remains, though, not just in the often broken hearts of Browns fans, but in a closer examination of their upcoming schedule. After a careful analysis of each game and the roster Cleveland brings to bear, it's fair to wonder if the big brains in Vegas might have missed the mark by setting the Browns’ win total so low.
Browns Will Win Far More Games Than Oddsmakers Think
Unfortunately for Joe Flacco, who is likely to start the season under center, the first quarter of the Browns’ 2025 schedule is nothing short of a meat grinder. Aside from a winnable Week 1 matchup against the Bengals, the Browns have a slim chance of walking away with wins against Baltimore, Green Bay, Detroit, and Minnesota. However, given the sorry offensive line protecting Joe Burrow, the Browns might be able to salvage at least one win, and a divisional one at that, from this challenging start to the season.
The second quarter of the season is where the Browns really need to make hay, even if a rocky start has, by this point, sent Flacco to the bench, and either Sanders or Gabriel finds themselves in the starting role. With so many question marks surrounding the position, Cleveland will have to establish itself as a time-of-possession-focused, defensive-minded team that can wear down opponents with their run game.
Week 6 at Pittsburgh, whether they have Aaron Rodgers or not, is a must-win divisional showdown that the Browns can and must capitalize on. After this, they face Miami, and considering their in-house personnel issues and Tua’s tendency toward injury, it's not outside the realm of possibility that the Browns walk away with this one too, especially if Jim Schwartz’s defense can rattle their quarterback’s cage.
Week 8 sees the Browns take on the Patriots in New England. Even with Mike Vrabel at the helm of his former team, the Pats’ glory days are far behind them. Myles Garrett and hopefully other edge rushing additions will have to put constant pressure on second-year QB Drake Maye, but it's very possible that the Browns come out on top of a low-scoring slog before they head into their bye week.
Well rested after their week off, the Browns need to start the third quarter of their season on the right foot, making a statement against the Justin Fields-led Jets, who bookmakers only foresee winning five or six games all season. Assuming they win in New Jersey, their next challenge is their second meeting with Baltimore, a game which can safely be chalked up to a Browns loss. Cleveland’s luck can turn around in week 12, though, as the Raiders, listed at 6.5 wins, are certainly beatable. The next two weeks, the Browns will go 1 and 1, losing to the Niners but stomping out the Titans, who are barely above the Browns in analysts’ win projections.
Barring superstar injuries, off-the-field antics, or other calamities, the Browns’ final quarter of the season sees them going .500; losing to both Chicago and Buffalo, but finishing the regular season strong by completing their sweeps of divisional rivals Pittsburgh and Cincy.
Far from another embarrassing three-win season, this admittedly optimistic scenario would leave the Browns sitting pretty at 9-8 and in the mix for a wildcard spot. Even if only half of these wins come to fruition, it still puts the Browns well above the embarrassingly low bar that sportsbooks have set for them. This season, the Browns have nothing to lose and everything to prove. After being disrespected by these insulting odds, they should be playing with a huge chip on their shoulder; something that should make opposing teams and unbelieving bettors worry.
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