2. Browns Hold Lamar Jackson to Fewer than 30 Rushing Yards
I know Browns fans probably don’t want me to say a single word about that first game against the Baltimore Ravens from Week 4, but hear me out.
Lamar Jackson had a pair of short touchdowns, but other than that he really didn’t do any damage on the ground. Jim Schwartz’ defense held him to 27 yards on 9 carries, and that average of 3.0 yards per attempt was his lowest in any game so far this season as well as his fourth-lowest over the last three years.
Sometimes players have off days seemingly at random, but that wasn't the case with Jackson against the Browns. An elite pass-rush doens't always translate to stopping a rushing quarterback (players who get too eager to rush can leave room to run), but the Browns' rushers are well disciplined and well coached. And behind them, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah flying around in support will make it hard for Jackson to get anywhere.
Lamar is averaging just shy of 50 rushing yards per game (48.9), but he shouldn't even come close to sniffing that in Week 10.
DraftKings Sportsbook isn't giving the Cleveland D much respect here. They do have his rushing total set below his season average, but not by much.
So even if you think I'm being too optimistic in expecting him below 30, all you need is for him to rush for 43 yards or fewer (something he's already done in four of nine games in 2023) for the Under to hit here.