Nick Chubb Disrespected by Comeback Player of the Year Odds

A lot of people are assuming that Nick Chubb won’t be able to return to form after suffering an awful knee injury in Week 2 of last season, and oddsmakers are part of that group.

Chubb has 17-to-1 odds to win Comeback Player of the Year next season, listed seventh behind several players who don’t have a very good case to make for the award, like Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.

Of course, that makes some sense. But Chubb deserves much more respect than this, especially with how he’s handled his rehab so far.

When Can We Expect Chubb Back on the Field?

Browns general manager Andrew Berry recently said the team is taking a “conservative” approach with Chubb this season, and it’s too early to tell when he’ll be ready to return as the RB1.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t try to figure it out for ourselves.

The typical return time from an injury of this nature is roughly nine to 12 months, which means Chubb should be ready to go by Week 1 – or by Week 4 at the absolute latest.

And it's not as if Chubb has never bounced back from an injury before. He tore multiple ligaments in his knee at Georgia, including his PCL, and he had no trouble returning.

Let’s also consider the Browns’ other options at the position. 

Cleveland returns Jerome Ford, who rushed for 813 yards and four touchdowns on 204 rushes (4 yards per rush) as a capable Chubb replacement. And the team also added some depth in D’Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines. But none of these players are better than Chubb, and none have been bonafide RB1s at any point in their career.

Couple that with the fact that Berry has maintained his stance that Chubb has not taken his last snap as a Brown, and it’s easy to see that the team is counting on him to be their top option at running back – or at least a 1A to Ford’s 1B – at some point early this fall. 

What Would Chubb Have to Do to Win Comeback Player of the Year?

Chubb winning Comeback Player of the Year is a harder situation to map out because it’s entirely dependent on other players he would be competing against for the award.

Let’s run through the list. 

Players listed with better odds than Chubb include: Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. 

That makes it an uphill battle for Chubb since all of those players will have the ball in their hand a ton this season. 

Rodgers (+100 odds) will be especially tough to beat out. If he stays healthy and leads the Jets to the playoffs, there’s almost no chance Chubb outdoes him. 

However, the other players don’t have that strong of a case. 

The remaining QBs on that list are already on relatively good teams, so a playoff push wouldn’t be all that surprising for any of them. 

And no player (besides maybe Rodgers) is coming off an injury as devastating as Chubb’s. 

If Chubb can rush for over 1,000 yards for a playoff-bound Browns team, he’s going to have a chance to win this award. At 17-to-1 odds, that’s a gamble worth taking. 

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