Cleveland Indians: Minnesota Twins catching up in AL Central
Just how close are the Minnesota Twins to catching up with the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central? Pitching makes the difference.
The 2018 season’s PECOTA projections have the Tribe running away with the AL Central, but one writer thinks it may be a little closer.
The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo praised the moves the Twins made this offseason, leaving this reader to believe that he thinks the Twins may be closer to the Tribe than you may think.
It was a little bit of a surprise, considering the PECOTA projects have the Tribe winning the Central by 16 games, while FanGraphs predicted a 12-game gap between the Indians and Minnesota.
With Logan Morrison signing in Minnesota, adding to an already decent lineup, should Tribe fans be sweating the Twinkies?
Cafardo wrote:
"“The Twins began their return to contention last season, and it will continue. They added Jake Odorizzi to their staff, and Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney to the bullpen. This should be a contending team in the American League Central, with the possibility of challenging the Indians.”"
That aforementioned lineup returns key cogs, such as Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Brian Dozer, Byron Buxton and Joe Mauer, in addition to Morrison.
Plus, ass Cafardo noted, the bullpen should be good.
But what about their rotation? Will Minnesota lean too heavily on its reserve pitchers to get through the regular season.
Paul Molitor‘s staff is led by Ervin Santana, who in his age 34 season during the 2017 campaign, went 16-8 and threw five complete games!
Many writers, including this one, thought Santana would be a nice trade-deadline candidate last season because no one expected the Twins to battle for a postseason berth. Yet there were the Twins, quietly winning 34 of their final 57 games as Cleveland stole national headlines winning 22-straight.
Now, Santana is starting the season battling a finger injury, which is expected to keep him out a month. Will this setback derail Santana’s season? It’s a storyline worth watching because the Twins are really counting on him.
If Santana’s dealing, Molitor has a nice one-two punch with Jose Berrios as the No. 2 starter. The 23-year-old was a big reason the Twins made the postseason in 2017, as he went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA. He’s poised to take the next step of his young career.
While Santana and Barrios could be formidable, the combination is a far cry from being Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco.
The back end of the rotation should be wear the Tribe separates itself. Trevor Bauer is a 17-game winner and there’s no reason to about he’ll do it again.
Mike Clevinger brings a high ceiling into the No. 4 spot. He struck out 137 in 121.2 innings en route to going 12-9. There’s reason to believe he can be even better.
That puts the pressure on Jose Berrios, who could be ready to take the next step in his big-league.career. The 23-year-old was another reason the Twins made the postseason in 2017, as he went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA.
But after that, Minnesota’s relying on .500 career and prospects.
For as solid as Cafardo makes the the Odorizzi signing out to be, the 27-year-old owns 40-38 carer mark with 3.83 ERA.
Kyle Gibson could get a look, too. He’s a former first-round pick with a lifetime 44-48 mark. Phil Hughes is still hanging around as well.
Prospect wise, Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero have potential, but right now, it’s just that potential.
The Twins are a good club, they’ll probably be better than the 82-82 PECOTA projection, but as our own Ric McElroy noted, pitching will carry the Tribe.
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The Indians used seven starters in 2018, the least in the big leagues, according to Anthony Castrovince. Tribe starters accounted for 66 percent of the team’s total innings pitching. That demonstrates consistency and and durability, and right now, the Twins just can’t match that.