Factory of Sadness' Top Cleveland Betting Picks for 7/21 (Cash in On Gavin Williams)

I don't trust the Guardians tonight, but I do think there's some massive betting value to be had in a matchup against the Phillies.

The best Cleveland sports betting pick on Friday includes taking advantage of some of Gavin Williams' shakier numbers this season.
The best Cleveland sports betting pick on Friday includes taking advantage of some of Gavin Williams' shakier numbers this season. / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
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The MLB regular season continues to roll on, but this is a quiet time in the sports world. The drama of the NBA offseason has cooled off, the NHL offseason is in a lull and NFL teams are quiet with the opening of training camp just around the corner.

That doesn't mean it needs to be a quiet time for spots bettors though, as tonight's Guardians game produces a prime opportunity to find some value.

Here's my top Cleveland sports betting pick for July 21st.

Best Cleveland Bets: July 21, 2023

Jason Schandl: Guardians-Phillies OVER 8.5 runs

Gavin Williams taking the mound could be bad news for the Guardians tonight. The 23-year-old righty has been off to a really promising start this season, but he has some brutal underlying numbers against left-handed hitters.

Those numbers include a 6.02 xFIP, a 1.60 WHIP, and a walk rate (16.2%) that nearly matches his strikeout rate (17.6%).

Unfortunately for Williams and the Guardians, the Phillies have no shortage of good left-handed bats to load the lineup with. And for that reason I'm a little worried about backing the Guardians straight up here.

The Phillies are on the back side of their rotation with Ranger Suarez starting tonight, And the advanced metrics show he’s not been quite as good as his 3.84 ERA may suggest this year (4.05 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA). This isn’t an easy spot, but it’s not as bad as you might think.

With both offenses in favorable spots here (especially since they don't necessarily look like such favorable spots on the surface), I'm all about taking the over tonight.

And if you place your wager on Bet365, you'll be cashing in no matter what happens in the game. New users who sign up through the exclusive Factory of Sadness link just need to deposit $10+ and wager at least $1 on the game to get a guaranteed $200 bonus. If your bet wins you get your usual cash payout, but no matter whether you win or lose you'll still get that $200 bonus. This offer won't be around forever, so cash in now!

Still looking for more info before making the jump with a sportsbook that doesn't have the name-brand value some of the bigger guys do? We thought you might be, so we wrote up everything in our Bet365 review at this link.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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