Factory of Sadness' Best Cleveland Betting Picks for 8/1 (Guardians Headline AL Central Picks)

We've got a big day of baseball on tap. Not only is today the MLB Trade Deadline, but we also have every MLB team in action, including the Guardians taking on the Astros in Houston.

With so many baseball bets to choose from, we'll stick to MLB wagers for our top recommendations today. Here are the Factory of Sadness editors' top Cleveland sports betting picks for Tuesday.

Best Cleveland Bets: August 1, 2023

Tyler Maher: Astros Moneyline vs. Guardians

Noah Syndergaard’s Guardians debut against the Astros didn’t go as planned last night. While he pitched well (5 ⅓ IP, 1 ER), Cleveland’s bullpen faltered and lost the game 7-3, dropping us a game below .500.

The Guardians will try to bounce back behind rookie Gavin Williams, who’s 1-2 with a 3.35 ERA, a 4.44 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP in seven career starts so far. He’s gotten better with each outing, though, with his earned run total dropping by one in each of his last four turns.

That said, it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in a guy with a 12:10 K/BB ratio over his last three starts, especially when he’s going up against a two-time All-Star in Framber Valdez. Valdez hasn’t been at his best lately either, however, posting a 7.00 ERA over his last five starts.

Unfortunately for the Guardians, this isn’t a great spot for them to capitalize. They’ve been one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers this year, ranking 27th in MLB with an 87 wRC+.

Cleveland also has a losing record on the road (25-30) while Houston is 29-25 at home and has won 18 of its last 28 games overall. Williams could struggle against an above-average offense, so look for Valdez to bounce back and the Astros to stay hot in another win today.

Jason Schandl: Mets @ Royals UNDER

Looking around the AL Central for more betting action, it’s pretty common that we land on the Royals. Usually it’s because they’re so easy to bet against, but today they’re up against one of the MLB’s other easiest teams to bet against. The Royals and Mets are two of only three teams in the majors who fail to cover the runline at least 60% of the time.

So instead of trying to figure out which one will win the battle of ineptitude there, I’m taking the easy approach by betting the Under.

The Under has hit in 58.4% of New York's games this season (second-highest rate in MLB) as well as 53.3% of Kansas City games (11th-highest).

On the mound, Zack Greinke might seem like a guy who screams “bet the Over”, but his advanced metrics aren’t quite as bad as his egregious 5.49 ERA. In a duel with the capable Jose Quintana, I’m not concerned about the pitchers bucking this trend.

Isaiah De Los Santos: Tigers @ Pirates OVER

A busy night for the AL Central includes the Tigers taking on the Pirates at PNC Park. This contest is likely a pure toss-up between two mediocre clubs, but that doesn’t mean this game lacks attractive betting options.

This matchup will see two pitchers with ERAs on the wrong side of 4.00 squaring off in Matt Manning (4.32) and Johan Oviedo (4.60). On Detroit’s side, Manning is coming off of a disastrous outing versus the Angels where he gave up 7 earned runs and a whopping 3 homers. He was also forced to leave his previous start after just two innings due to rain, so he’s not in the best form right now.

Oviedo, meanwhile, had plenty of struggles in the month of July. Over five starts, the righty was tagged for 5+ earned runs in three appearances, including a whopping 8 ER against the Brewers on July 2.

It’s clear neither pitcher is on top of their game right now, which should lead to plenty of opportunities for hitters to take advantage of tonight. I like the Over in this one.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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