Factory of Sadness' Best Cleveland Betting Picks for 8/9 (Guardians Fall Short in Pitching Duel)

The Guardians have a tough matchup today against the Blue Jays and their ace.

The best Cleveland sports betting picks for Wednesday, including the Guardians vs. Blue Jays game.
The best Cleveland sports betting picks for Wednesday, including the Guardians vs. Blue Jays game. / David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The Guardians bounced back with a win yesterday, but only because the Blue Jays failed to score any runs. We'll take a 1-0 win, but it'd be nice if the bats would finally wake up.

We've got another game against Toronto today, plus more AL Central action to bet on. Here's a look at our best Cleveland betting picks for Wednesday.

Best Cleveland Bets: August 9, 2023

Tyler Maher: Blue Jays Moneyline @ Guardians

We eked out a 1-0 win over Toronto yesterday, although the lak of offense on our side remains concerning. I don’t expect it to suddenly pick up today against Kevin Gausman, either, who’s 8-6 with a 3.20 ERA. The two-time All-Star also leads the American League in strikeouts (177) and strikeout rate (12.1 K/9) while posting the best FIP (2.79) in the majors.

We’ve got a pretty good pitcher on our side too in Logan Allen, albeit not as elite as Gausman. He’s 5-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 16 starts this season.

On most days I’d feel pretty good about our chances with Allen on the bump, but he’s simply not as good as Gausman. His 3.95 FIP and 1.37 WHIP are a bit concerning, plus his last three starts have been pretty rough (5.21 ERA).

The Blue Jays are playing excellent baseball right now and have won five of their last seven. Meanwhile, we’ve been in a tailspin since the trade deadline and have scored just 25 runs over our last 11 games. This could end up being a pitcher’s duel, but either way I think Toronto takes it.

Jason Schandl: Matt Chapman To Hit a Home Run

The Guardians’ young pitchers have been one of the few bright spots around this team lately, but I’m not sure tonight will go so well for Logan Allen.

His 3.65 ERA is certainly exciting, but I’m not going to get ahead of myself when it's backed by a 4.50 xERA, a 4.34 SIERA and a 4.14 xFIP. He’s also giving up a ton of hard contact (36.0%) specifically to right-handed bats.

Well, the Jays have some right-handed power that’s more than capable of taking advantage of that weakness.

Matt Chapman’s slugging percentage isn’t up where it was early in his career in Oakland, but he’s still flashing plenty of power with a .201 isolated slugging (ISO) on the year.

His platoon splits make the Allen matchup especially juicy, with that ISO jumping to .258 against southpaws and coming on an absurd 55.2% hard-hit rate / 50.0% fly-ball rate.

Hard-hit fly balls are obviously the recipe you need for home runs, so it’s easy to back Chapman here.

Isaiah De Los Santos: Twins @ Tigers OVER

The Tigers managed to rebound with a win yesterday as Eduardo Rodriguez blanked the red-hot Twins. Without E-Rod on the mound, I think we see the runs flow like they did on Monday.

Neither team is sending out a pitcher with a ton of positive momentum on their side. Minnesota is turning to Bailey Ober, who’s been solid this season (3.21 ERA). However, he was also shelled just two starts ago, giving up a whopping 6 runs to the lowly Royals. In his last outing, Ober threw a season-high 104 pitches as well, so fatigue is a legitimate concern here.

Detroit’s countering with Alex Faedo on Wednesday. He’s had a much tougher year in 2023, posting a dismal 5.80 ERA. The righty has also gotten lit up in two of his past three starts, surrendering at least 6 earned runs during this stretch.

Minnesota managed to plate 9 runs in the series opener, and I think a similar explosion against Faedo is very likely, which is why I’m taking the Over in this one.

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