The Cleveland Browns were one of the biggest surprises for most NFL fans in Week 1, blowing out the reigning AFC North champs, who remained one of the Super Bowl favorites for 2023.
That thrashing of the Cincinnati Bengals was enough to earn the Browns some attention from both the national media and the betting markets.
Cleveland Browns Super Bowl Odds
BetSided expert Peter Dewey highlighted the Browns as one of the biggest Super Bowl odds movers from Week 1. Cleveland was +3500 to win the Super Bowl before kickoff, then surged to +2500 at the time of the article on Monday. Some books have them as high as +2200 now.
Flipping those odds to implied probability, that points to the Browns nearly doubling their chances (2.8% at +3500 to 4.3% at +2200). And even that doesn't feel like enough of a reaction.
It's not like this was a fluky win over Cincinnati. It's not like a blocked field goal blew the game open or a couple pick sixes let us really run up the score. It was a thorough beatdown with Cleveland's defense looking like one of the best in the NFL.
Just as fun? This came with a nice drop in the Bengals' odds too. They were third in the NFL at +1100 before the game, but now they rank just sixth at +1300 — a drop from 8.3% to 7.1% in implied probability. And again, it feels like that drop should be even further.
We don't want to overreact to one game, but it's clear that this was not just a usual one game. There are some fundamental beliefs around both of the Ohio squads in the AFC North that have been significantly shaken up.
AFC North Odds 2023
This shakeup has been strongly reflected in the odds to win the division, too. Originally projected as largely a two-team race between the Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, the AFC North is now a three-team toss-up.
The gaps between +195, +200 and +220 are tiny, representing implied probabilities of 33.9%, 33.3% and 31.3%, respectively.
Before Week 1, the Browns were just +380 (20.8%) to win the AFC North.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change..
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