There might not have been a more underrated defensive player in the entire NFL than Myles Garrett in 2022. And that's saying something, because he was highly rated enough to finish fifth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting and was a second-team All-Pro.
He's getting more respect in the Defensive Player of the Year betting markets in 2023, but still not enough. In my mind Garrett is a no-brainer bet to win the award for the first time.
Myles Garrett Defensive Player of the Year Odds
Garrett is pretty much unanimously ranked second in the Defensive Player of the Year odds for 2023, with odds coming in around +600 to +800. Obviously if you're going to bet Garrett, you'd rather get an 8-to-1 payout than 6-to-1, so that would mean betting him on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Now let's look at why Garrett is such an obvious bet to win DPoY over a guy like Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa or T.J. Watt.
Garrett's DPoY Case
Garrett's 16.0 sacks in the 2022 season weren't enough to get him love over Nick Bosa (18.5 sacks), and he lacked the versatility and national media coverage to edge out Micah Parsons or Haason Reddick.
That said, Garrett was absolutely lights-out. He had the NFL's second-most sacks despite being the most double-teamed pass rusher in the league. Enemy offenses' entire focus was centered around stopping Garrett, and he still dominated.
In fact, Pro Football Focus gave him the highest pass rush grade for an edge rusher of the decade.
Now in 2023, he'll finally have a supporting cast that keeps defenses honest. Za'Darius Smith ranked 12th in rushing off the edge per PFF last year, and he's averaged 12.0 sacks plus 28 QB hits per season in his last three healthy years.
Not to mention the Browns should finally get some push up the middle too with Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris being massive upgrades over Jordan Elliott as interior rushers.
If he stays healthy, Garrett could realistically be in for a 20-sack season. Four of the last five players to record 20-sack seasons won DPoY when they did it. The only exception? Justin Houston in 2014, when J.J. Watt won the award with 20+ sacks.
Winning an award in Cleveland is always going to require more than it takes to get credit if you play somewhere like Dallas. The national media will downplay (or gloss over) Garrett's contributions if the Browns aren't looking like serious playoff contenders.
But Garrett is definitely good enough to overcome that, and with this Browns D looking like one of the best in the NFL, he might even start to get some of the national attention he deserves.
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